HIVE Digital Technologies [HIVE]
As of: 2026-07-29 · Spot: $2.535 (2026-07-29 close) · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29
This memo issues no position verdict — no Long, Short, Watchlist or Avoid. It scores Criteria and outputs an analysis. Whether this analysis justifies a position is a question about a particular book, and the book decides. What follows are the constraints any position would face, not a recommendation.
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Shares traded 2026-07-29 | 1,013,301 |
| Dollar volume | $2.57m |
| Verdict | PASS — small; a sizing constraint, not an admission failure |
2026-07-29 was a high-volume down day across the entire complex, so this figure is generous relative to a
normal session. Liquidity constrains position sizing, never admission (criteria.md).
No options chain was pulled for HIVE. Liquidity Criteria is explicit: "Any proposed options structure requires the actual chain pulled first — open interest and quoted size for the specific strikes and expiry… A vehicle that cannot be filled is not a vehicle." The HCA precedent (maximum open interest of 18 contracts across an entire March-2027 chain) is why this is a hard rule rather than a preference.
Accordingly no strikes, expiries, Greeks or structures are proposed. Doing so without the chain would
manufacture an uninvestable vehicle. Pulling the HIVE chain from
data.alpaca.markets/v1beta1/options/snapshots is a prerequisite to any options expression.
Common stock only, until a chain is pulled and open interest and quoted size are verified at specific strikes.
criteria.md names inverse-volatility sizing as the active protection on the Downside Criteria, "because a
fat-left-tail name is almost always a high-volatility name and is sized down automatically."
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 252-day realised volatility (screen record) | 97.3% (scan_v3 vol_252d_pct) |
| Implication | among the highest in any book; inverse-vol sizing cuts this hard |
| One-day move, 2026-07-29 | −11.1% |
On 2026-07-29 every name in this complex fell together:
| HIVE | HUT | IREN | CORZ | BTDR | WYFI | SHAZ | CRWV | APLD | NBIS | WULF | CIFR | RIOT | MARA | CLSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −11.1% | −12.8% | −13.5% | −12.4% | −13.1% | −12.7% | −10.9% | −9.6% | −12.7% | −13.7% | −12.8% | −13.3% | −14.0% | −11.6% | −10.8% |
Fifteen names, one factor, a 4.4pp range. Any two positions in this cluster are effectively one position.
This is a book-level exposure and correlation-limit question, not a single-name question, and it must be
resolved by portfolio-book before any HIVE position is sized. Treating cluster members as independent names
would breach the correlation limit while appearing diversified.
Confirming observable: HPC/other revenue breaking decisively above the $4.6–5.2m/quarter band it has occupied for four straight quarters, toward the claimed $35m ARR (~$8.75m/quarter).
Refuting observable: a fifth consecutive quarter in that band, or gross mining margin falling below 20% (it is at 24%, from 49% two quarters ago). Either would establish that the $35m ARR claim is not converting to revenue and that the mining engine funding the pivot is running down. The BTC treasury that previously absorbed such a gap is gone — $181.1m to $10.8m — so the shortfall would be funded by equity, and the count is already +61.5% in 14 months.
portfolio-book — 15 correlated names moved as one on
2026-07-29.WeightedAverageShares 347,059,039 vs 69,411,808 for
the same period across two 40-Fs) before building any per-share history.