Phase Space AI

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HROW · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-12.6%
Required CAGR
38.8%
Demonstrated
26.2%
Terminal margin
16.2%
Exit multiple
12.0x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

Roughly what management's own FY2026 guidance implies on a GAAP basis. Sits ABOVE the 7.3% TTM realised operating margin, i.e. it credits the guided operating leverage in full.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
18% below the memo price
$32.23
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+27.2%

A daily close below $32.23 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: the IHEEZO Medicare reimbursement reset compounding with an inflexible fixed charge. Not a volatility figure. The mechanism: IHEEZO was 30% of FY2025 revenue. Its ASC pass-through expired 2026-03-31; Q1-2026 IHEEZO revenue was $1.85m against $35.88m in Q4-2025. Management's stated remedy is that the in-office retina channel "fully offsets" the lost ASC volume this year — an assertion with no realised quarter behind it. Simultaneously the compounding segment is −32.7% YoY with California's 503B and 503A out-of-state licences surrendered in January 2026. If both continue, FY2026 rev

Documents

HROW Catalyst Calendar HROW Financial Model Notes HROW Research HROW Trade Construction HROW Valuation