Harrow [HROW]
2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED (monitoring; never blocks). PASS — five dated events inside 12 months.
No date on this calendar is inferred or estimated unless it is explicitly labelled "estimated". Where Harrow has not published a date, the row says so rather than inventing one. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 (already occurred) | IHEEZO Medicare Part B transitional pass-through expires, for ASC-administered procedures only | FY2025 10-K: "We expect pass-through status for IHEEZO to expire March 31, 2026" | IHEEZO was 30% of FY2025 revenue. ASC = 18% of Q1-2026 units; in-office retina = 82% and retains separate Part B payment | The single largest known negative already in the numbers |
| 2026-01 (already occurred) | California Board of Pharmacy settlement approved — ImprimisRx surrenders its 503B out-of-state outsourcing-facility licence and its 503A out-of-state pharmacy licence | FY2025 10-K | Permanent reduction to the compounding base in the largest US ophthalmology market. Impact not quantified by the company | Partially — magnitude unknown |
| 2026-07-01 | IOPIDINE 1% permanent J-code takes effect. WAC $740 per 5 pouches ($148/pouch, one pouch per procedure); reimbursement expected at WAC+6% or +3% initially, ASP+6% eventually | Q1-2026 Letter to Stockholders (26th Quarterly Letter, 2026-05-11) | Converts a capitated cost centre into a reimbursed in-office product across a stated >1.5m annual on-label procedures; shares IHEEZO's physician call point | New, small, incremental revenue line |
| July 2026 | First presentation of IHEEZO data in retina procedures, at ASRS (American Society of Retina Specialists) | Q1-2026 Letter to Stockholders | Retina is 82% of IHEEZO volume and has been adopted without procedure-specific data. Prospective retina data is the stated next adoption leg | Whether the in-office channel scales |
| Q4 2026 | QUELL study data | Q1-2026 Letter to Stockholders | Management calls favourable results "a genuine inflection point" for retina adoption | The durability of the IHEEZO mechanism |
| H2 2026 | IHEEZO multi-unit packaging launch, plus a stated 20–25% improvement in net pricing | Q1-2026 Letter to Stockholders | This is the specific bridge from 45,509 units of Q1 demand to recognised revenue. It is the most checkable claim management has made | Whether IHEEZO revenue returns |
| Event | Status | Historical filing pattern |
|---|---|---|
| Q2-2026 results | Date not announced as at 2026-07-28. Guidance: revenue $71–81m; consensus $70.4m, EPS $(0.24) | Q2 10-Qs filed 2024-08-07, 2025-08-11 → early-to-mid August 2026 (estimated) |
| Q3-2026 results | Not announced | Q3 10-Qs filed 2024-11-14, 2025-11-10 → early-to-mid November 2026 (estimated) |
| FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance | Not announced | 10-Ks filed 2024-03-19, 2025-03-27, 2026-03-02 → late Feb – late March 2027 (estimated) |
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| FDA inspection of the New Jersey 503B outsourcing facility | Ongoing exposure, no scheduled date. The 10-K's forward-looking caution names "ongoing communications with the FDA relating to compliance and quality plans at our outsourcing facility." A 483 or warning letter would arrive without notice |
| 503B bulks list rulemaking | Named in the 10-K as a regulation that "could or currently do burden operations or narrow the" formulary. No date |
| Further state pharmacy-board actions | The 10-K explicitly contemplates other states taking "similar actions" to California's. No date |
| New product-rights acquisition | The roll-up cadence has stopped ($151.1m FY2023 → $0.2m FY2025 of product-rights spend). Any new deal is undated and, at 0.76x interest coverage, would require equity or more debt |
| ImprimisRx $34.9m jury verdict | ImprimisRx received a $34,900,000 jury verdict (copyright/trademark/unfair competition, S.D. Cal.). A gain contingency, not recognised. Collection and appeal timing undisclosed |
| $300m 8.625% Senior Notes | Mature September 2030. Nil due 2026–2029. Refinancing is a 2029–2030 question, not a 2026 one |
The Valuation Criteria fails by 12.6pp at a growth-matched exit multiple. No single event on this calendar repairs that, because the failure is about the five-year revenue path, not about one quarter. What the calendar does resolve is the direction of that path: the H2-2026 arithmetic requires $113–125m per quarter against an all-time record of $89.1m, and the Q2 print in August 2026 is the first observation that tests it. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own this — but here the events happen to be unusually well specified, and the August print is the cheapest information available on the whole thesis.