HUT · investment memo
Not stated. HUT_Valuation.md runs no reverse DCF: reverse_dcf.py was NOT SOLVABLE because the exit multiple is UNIDENTIFIED, and the required-parameter analysis is disclosed as a substitute rather than presented as a DCF output. No terminal operating margin is assumed anywhere. The memo further argues that the mining leg and the AI/HPC leg cannot share an exit multiple at all, and scores the mining leg UNIDENTIFIED with a floor at zero.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $66.12 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: the bitcoin price, with a second-order squeeze through the Bitmain pledge. A sustained bitcoin decline hits HUT three ways simultaneously, which is why it is not merely a volatility story: 1. Revenue — 87.5% of it is ASIC compute, i.e. bitcoin earned per unit of hashrate times price. 2. The treasury — $1,114.2m, 12.3% of EV, marks down through income. 3. The Bitmain obligation — a $360.9m miner purchase liability stands against 3,090 pledged BTC worth $210.8m. The liability already exceeds the pledged collateral by $150.1m. A lower bitcoin price widens that gap and the redemption