Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Hut 8 [HUT]

Hut 8 Corp. [HUT] — Financial Model Notes

As of: 2026-07-29 · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29 · All figures traced to primary EDGAR filings.

Per the brief, the screen's inputs were not trusted. Share count, TTM revenue and net cash were independently verified against primary filings, and net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS was cross-checked for scale. Every discrepancy is reported; none is silently adopted.

Verified inputs

Line Value Source
Revenue Q1 2026 $71,017,000 RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax
— Power $3,740,000 segment note, 10-Q
— Digital Infrastructure $1,303,000 segment note
— Compute $65,974,000 segment note
— of which ASIC compute (bitcoin) $62,117,000 cash-flow non-cash adjustment, 10-Q
— AI/HPC (derived) ≈$3,857,000 Compute less ASIC compute
Revenue FY2025 / FY2024 $235,118,000 / $162,385,000 10-K
TTM revenue to 2026-03-31 $284,320,000 235.118 − 21.815 + 71.017 — matches the screen exactly
Net loss attributable Q1 2026 −$219,849,000 NetIncomeLoss
ProfitLoss Q1 2026 −$253,135,000 incl. 44.70% ABTC NCI
Digital-asset loss Q1 2026 −$295,657,000 CryptoAssetRealizedGainLossOperating
G&A Q1 2026 $81,740,000 income statement (Q1 2025: $21,059,000)
D&A Q1 2026 $38,442,000 income statement
Gain on Far North sale $33,601,000 income statement, net of transaction costs
Gain on derivatives Q1 2026 $40,817,000 income statement
Shares outstanding 112,594,112 @ 2026-05-04 10-Q cover — screen correct
WA diluted shares Q1 2026 111,064,728 WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
Cash $160,016,000 @ 2026-03-31 CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue
Funded debt (gross) $402,633,000 @ 2026-03-31 DebtInstrumentCarryingAmount ("Long-term Debt, Gross")
Bitcoin $1,114,157,000 / 16,331 BTC CryptoAssetFairValue, CryptoAssetNumberOfUnits
— pledged to Bitmain 3,090 BTC, FV $210,800,000 10-Q narrative
— miner purchase liability $360,900,000 10-Q narrative
Operating lease liability $18,161,000 OperatingLeaseLiability
Total liabilities $919,568,000 (252.427 current + 667.141 non-current) us-gaap:Liabilities

EPS cross-check

−$219,849,000 ÷ 111,064,728 = −$1.979. HUT's EPS numerator is adjusted for subsidiary "Penny Warrants" and the warrant-liability effect, so an exact tie is not expected; the magnitude reconciles. No scale error.

Net cash reconstruction — and the screen's error

Screen (scan_v3) This memo
Cash 160.016 160.016
Debt components found [] (empty) — yet net_cash_complete: true 402.633
Net cash +160.016 −242.617
Bitcoin treasury not carried 1,114.157 (stripped from EV as non-operating)
Miner purchase liability not carried 360.900 (disclosed, not added to the headline EV)
EV 11,224.375 (at the 2026-07-28 spot of $101.11) 9,055 ex-bitcoin (at $88.165)

Screen error: $402.6m — the entire funded debt scored as zero. The mechanical cause is identifiable: HUT stopped tagging LongTermDebt, LongTermDebtCurrent and LongTermDebtNoncurrent after 2024-12-31. From 2025-03-31 onward the balance is carried under DebtInstrumentCarryingAmount only. A resolver that looks for LongTermDebt* and nothing else finds an empty set and — critically — still sets net_cash_complete: true. Including the miner purchase liability the omission is $763.5m.

Modelling notes and hazards

  1. Compute ≠ AI. The only way to separate bitcoin self-mining from AI inside HUT's Compute segment is the ASIC compute revenue non-cash line in the cash-flow statement. Any model that treats Compute as an AI line overstates AI revenue by ~17x.
  2. Two consolidation complications. American Bitcoin carries a 44.70% NCI, so NetIncomeLoss and ProfitLoss differ materially ($219.8m vs $253.1m in Q1 2026); and subsidiary "Penny Warrants" adjust the EPS numerator. Use ProfitLoss for enterprise-level analysis and NetIncomeLoss for per-share.
  3. Bitcoin marks must be stripped in both directions. FY2024's +$332m of net income and FY2025's −$226m describe the same operating business. See the accounting-quality section for the full bridge.
  4. A fiscal-year change and a merger sit in the history (10-KT transition report; the November-2023 Hut 8 Mining / US Bitcoin Corp combination). Do not build a CAGR or a per-share series across either without adjusting. The screen's 42.0% CAGR does exactly this.
  5. Terminal value exceeds 60% of EV, so the reverse DCF is the mandatory primary long-horizon output. It was not solvable because the exit multiple is UNIDENTIFIED; the required-parameter analysis substitutes for it.

Reproduction

Script Purpose
work/fetch.py downloads companyfacts and submissions for all eight CIKs from data.sec.gov
work/extract.py structured extraction: revenue, net income, EPS, shares, cash, debt, digital assets
work/dump.py exact-tag fact-series dump (--exact for precise tag matching)
work/rfiles.py lists a filing's R-file reports from FilingSummary.xml and renders one as text
work/grepdoc.py fetches a filing document, converts to text, caches it, greps with context
work/compute.py computes and reconciles every metric in the cluster table
work/prices.py Alpaca snapshot prices
work/cfcheck.py, work/cftest.py Cloudflare Workers/Pages quota probes

Commit: e67ab6405055a342b54a5ef03613a3650d59ab05