Hut 8 [HUT]
As of: 2026-07-29 · Spot: $88.165 · EV (ex digital assets): $9,055m · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29
Cluster context: CLUSTER_Analysis.md
Two outputs are required on every name: a 12-month target and the implied-path test. Reporting only one is a defect. Both are addressed below, and where an input does not exist it is declared UNIDENTIFIED rather than substituted with a peer median.
HUT grew +225.5% YoY in Q1 2026. No comparator exists at that growth rate in AI compute at scale — CoreWeave,
the fastest large pure-play, grew +111.6%. Per valuation.md the multiple is declared UNIDENTIFIED rather
than defaulted.
Holding the pure-play anchor of 6.6x EV / annualised AI revenue and today's EV ex-bitcoin of $9,055m fixed:
This is not a valuation gap; it is a category error. No plausible parameterisation of an AI-compute multiple explains HUT's price. The name is therefore not an AI-compute holding at any multiple, and pricing it as one is the mistake this cluster exists to prevent.
| Exit multiple on annualised AI revenue | AI revenue required to support $9,055m EV | vs $15.4m demonstrated |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6x (CRWV today) | $1,372m | 89x |
| 10.9x (WYFI today) | $831m | 54x |
| 25.0x | $362m | 24x |
| 100.0x | $91m | 5.9x |
| 586.9x (HUT today) | $15.4m | current rate |
Every row is implausible before the last one. The exit-multiple sensitivity is the wrong instrument for HUT — the sensitivity that matters is the bitcoin price, which is not an exit multiple and cannot be treated as one.
| Component | $m | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Market capitalisation | 9,927 | 112,594,112 × $88.165 |
| less bitcoin treasury | (1,114) | 16,331 BTC at 2026-03-31 fair value; $210.8m of it pledged |
| plus funded debt | 403 | DebtInstrumentCarryingAmount |
| plus miner purchase liability | 361 | obligation against the pledged BTC |
| less cash | (160) | |
| Implied value of the operating business | ≈9,417 | on $284.3m of TTM revenue = 33.1x, of which 87.5% is bitcoin mining |
The market is paying ~$9.4bn for a bitcoin-mining business generating $284m of revenue whose incremental economics are set by the bitcoin price and global hashrate, plus $3.9m a quarter of AI revenue. On a bitcoin-per-share basis, HUT's 16,331 BTC across 112.59m shares is 0.145 BTC per share; at $88.165 the market is paying an implied ~$608k per bitcoin held, i.e. a very large premium to spot for the operating business attached to it.
Both required inputs are unavailable. (1) No consensus — Alpha Vantage quota not attempted; Consensus Criteria
INDETERMINATE, blocks nothing. (2) The name's own multiple history spans multiple regime changes: the
November-2023 Hut 8 Mining / US Bitcoin Corp merger, a fiscal-year change (10-KT transition report), the
February-2026 disposal of the Far North power business, and the consolidation of American Bitcoin with a 44.7%
NCI. valuation.md requires UNIDENTIFIED where the history spans a regime change. Declared UNIDENTIFIED. No
target is manufactured.
This is the methodological core of the cluster and it applies directly to HUT:
| Bitcoin mining | AI/HPC hosting or cloud | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue driver | commodity price × share of a rising global hashrate | contracted $/MW or $/GPU-hour |
| Counterparty | none | named, with a term |
| Contract | none | 5–10 years, often with prepayments and RPO |
| Terminal value | halves every ~4 years by protocol; global hashrate grows continuously | a datacenter with a signed tenant |
| Observed gross margin, 2026 | HIVE 24% (from 49%); CORZ −56% | CORZ colocation 59%; WYFI 61% |
A single blended exit multiple applied across these two streams is the exact defect that inflated ADMA by 51pp and INOD by 32pp. This analysis therefore ranks on EV / annualised AI-HPC revenue and EV / RPO — a price-for-what-exists and a price-for-what-is-signed — and scores the mining leg at UNIDENTIFIED with a floor at zero, because a stream with a negative gross margin at one operator and a halving margin at another has no defensible positive revenue multiple.
valuation.md| Requirement | This memo |
|---|---|
| The parameter solved for, and every parameter held fixed, named | Stated above: AI-HPC revenue required, holding the exit multiple, share count and net debt fixed |
| Margin: demonstrated − required, in percentage points | Stated above — this is the number the strategy ranks on |
| The exit multiple used, and the implied compression from today's trading multiple, as a number | Stated above |
| Sensitivity over the exit multiple (never over scenario probabilities) | Table above |
| Reverse DCF mandatory where terminal value > 60% of EV | Terminal value does exceed 60% of EV. reverse_dcf.py was not solvable because the exit multiple is UNIDENTIFIED; the required-parameter analysis above is the substitute and is disclosed as such rather than presented as a DCF output |
| Growth-matched anchoring, or declare UNIDENTIFIED | Declared above |
| Do not set the base exit multiple below every stated anchor | Not applicable — no base multiple is asserted |
| TTM revenue, never last fiscal year | TTM used throughout; see the model notes for the derivation |