Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Intel Corporation [INTC]

Intel Corporation [INTC] — Catalyst Calendar

No date in this file is invented. Unannounced dates are marked ESTIMATE with the prior-year basis stated.

Fiscal year ends the last Saturday of December. Reporting cadence: Q1 late April, Q2 late July, Q3 late October, Q4/FY late January.

Date Status Event What it tests
23 Jul 2026 (passed) actual Q2 2026 results Delivered: revenue $16,128m +25.4%, GAAP operating margin +11.1%, GAAP EPS −$2.16, non-GAAP +$0.42, external foundry revenue $293m
~22–29 Oct 2026 ESTIMATE (2025-10-23, 2024-10-31, 2023-10-26 actuals) Q3 2026 results The single most important print. (1) External third-party foundry revenue against $293m — the only line that can begin to identify the terminal margin; (2) consolidated operating margin against Q2's +11.1%; (3) the escrow derivative mark, which will move with the share price; (4) 2027 capex guidance after the CFO's "meaningfully increasing our investments"
Q3 2026 guidance already given announced Revenue $15.8–16.8bn, GAAP gross margin 41.0%, GAAP EPS $0.31, non-GAAP EPS $0.38 Whether the sequential margin improvement holds; the guide implies +19.4% YoY, below the Q2 run-rate of +25.4%
~21–28 Jan 2027 ESTIMATE (2026-01-22, 2025-01-30, 2024-01-25) Q4/FY2026 results and the FY2027 guide The FY2026 Government Incentives note — the successor to the $529m operating benefit and the $1.0bn depreciation relief, now that post-August-2025 CHIPS money is equity-attributed rather than grant-accounted. Also the FY2026 cumulative capital-incentive reduction to gross PP&E (was $16.1bn)
~late Apr 2027 ESTIMATE (2026-04-23, 2025-04-24, 2024-04-25) Q1 2027 results Same tests; first full quarter under the raised capex
Undated, pending filed, no date Delaware derivative suit re the Warrant and Common Stock Agreement with the Department of Commerce Motions to dismiss were filed May 2026. An adverse ruling would remove the $15.6bn derivative liability and the 241m warrants — and also the funding. Unquantifiable in either direction and deliberately not modelled
Continuous ongoing Escrowed-share releases as Secure Enclave cash is received 7m released in Q2 2026, 13m in H1. 143m remain, of which 71m are contingent. Each release is dilution and each re-marks the derivative
2027, undated NOT ANNOUNCED 14A node milestones "14A" first appeared in the January 2026 release at 2.9 mentions per 10,000 words and has already faded to 1.8. No filing read for this memo attaches a date, a customer or a volume to 14A. No date is listed because none exists

What is NOT on this calendar, and why

Monitoring checklist, per print — in priority order

  1. External third-party foundry revenue (segment note, the "totaled $X million" sentence). $293m in Q2 2026. This is the number.
  2. Intel Foundry segment operating loss. −$2,089m in Q2 2026.
  3. Consolidated operating margin, GAAP. +11.1% in Q2 2026 — and whether a central tendency is forming in a series whose five-year range is 46.6 points wide.
  4. The escrow derivative mark and the fair value of the liability ($15.6bn at Q2 2026). Read it as an artifact, not a result.
  5. Capex, absolute and as a percentage of revenue. 20.8% in H1 2026 and guided up.
  6. Proceeds from capital-related government incentives, in investing cash flow. $167m in H1 2026, down 83% from $964m.
  7. Cumulative capital-related reduction to gross PP&E. $16.1bn at end-2025.
  8. Non-controlling interests. $15,601m at Q2 2026, up $9.8bn in eighteen months.