Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Intel Corporation [INTC]

Intel Corporation [INTC] — Financial Model Notes

Scope limitation, stated first. Tier-2 memo. No .xlsx workbook. Every figure was computed in reproducible Python against cached SEC XBRL facts and cached Alpaca bars; this file is the audit trail. No balance check, because there is no forecast balance sheet — tie-out is to the filed statements only.

Scripts (committed under work/): fetch_facts.py, facts.py, dump.py, bs.py, filings.py, pr.py, mentions.py, mult.py, anchor.py, calc.py, calc2.py.

---

1. Tie-out to the filed statements

Q2 2026 10-Q (0000050863-26-000157, filed 2026-07-24) and FY2025 10-K (0000050863-26-000011, filed 2026-01-23). All $m.

Cross-checks required by the brief: - Q2 2026: −11,033 ÷ 5,104 = −2.162 vs filed diluted EPS −2.16. Ties. - FY2025: −267 ÷ 4,530 = −0.059 vs filed −0.06. Ties.

---

2. Derived figures, each with its formula

---

3. WACC build

beta          = cov(INTC, SPY) / var(SPY) over 252 sessions                = 2.69
Ke            = 4.2% + 2.69 × 5.5%                                        = 19.0%
w_e           = 434,908 / (434,908 + 50,537)                              = 89.6%
WACC          = 0.896 × 19.0% + 0.104 × 6.0% × (1 − 0.10)                 = 17.6%
realised vol  = stdev(daily returns) × sqrt(252)                          = 77.8%

The 17.6% WACC is disclosed as aggressive and the conclusion is shown to be independent of it: at a 9.0% WACC the required terminal margin is still 27.2%, above Intel's best-ever 24.6% (INTC_Valuation.md §4).

---

4. Own-multiple history — construction

1,508 daily sessions, 2020-07-27 → 2026-07-28 (Alpaca IEX, split-adjusted). TTM revenue as known at each date, lagged to the filing date, fourth quarters inferred as (annual − three tagged quarters). Share count and net debt held at today's verified values.

Only the EV/Sales series is reported. EV/EBIT and P/E were computed and are discarded as uninterpretable: TTM EBIT crosses zero, which makes the ratio unbounded (the series printed a "current" 494.6x at the 100th percentile — an artifact of a near-zero denominator, not a valuation statement), and TTM EPS is negative. Reporting either would have been a fabrication of precision and they are named here so the discard is on the record.

Same known bias as elsewhere: holding today's net debt constant across history distorts historic EV. For Intel the distortion is small (net debt has been $20–50bn throughout, and it is 4.6% of today's EV), so the EV/Sales percentiles are more reliable here than for Oracle.

---

5. Growth-matched anchor — construction, and its declared failure

Source: reports/scan_v3/_scan.json, 3,980 names with status == "OK".

Two brackets, both sic2 == "36" and market_cap > $5bn and 0 < ev_ebit < 200:

• Bracket A: revenue_cagr_demonstrated in [0%, 10%]. n = 18. Set growth 0.1%–8.7%. EV/EBIT p25 17.1x, median 28.1x, p75 46.1x. Cap min $5.0bn, median $9.8bn.
• Bracket B: growth in [15%, 30%]. n = 12. Set growth 15.0%–27.5%. EV/EBIT p25 25.2x, median 31.1x, p75 50.8x. Cap min $7.3bn, median $36.3bn.

Neither bracket satisfies the strict valuation.md condition, because the condition is that the set's growth must bracket the subject's exit-year growth — and Intel's exit-year growth is not estimable (five-year CAGR −5.7%, latest quarter +25.4%). This is declared rather than papered over: the anchor is imperfect, 28.1x is a reference point not a derivation, and the sensitivity in INTC_Valuation.md §4 spans 11.9x to 50.8x for that reason.

Market-cap floor of $5bn set explicitly to avoid the logged sub-$100m-shell defect; realised minimum $5.0bn.

---

6. What is NOT in this analysis

• No three-statement forecast, therefore no balance check. Deliberate Tier-2 scope.
• No terminal margin. Declared UNIDENTIFIED. This is the central methodological output of the memo, not an omission.
• No 12-month target. Declared UNIDENTIFIED, with the bound reported instead.
• No EV/EBIT or P/E multiple, current or historical. Both are uninterpretable at a near-zero earnings base (§4).
• No consensus estimates. Alpha Vantage quota treated as exhausted; no call spent. Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE; blocks nothing.
• No accruals calculation. Sloan accruals on a period containing a $12.5bn non-cash derivative mark, a $3,967m impairment and an Altera deconsolidation would be a number without a meaning. Scored INDETERMINATE, not FAIL, per calibration item D1.
• No borrow rate. Not obtainable from any free source here; no rate is invented.
• No correlation matrix against the book. Flagged, not fabricated.
• No segment-level depreciation. Intel states it is "impracticable to determine"; no estimate appears anywhere in this memo, and that impracticability is itself part of the UNIDENTIFIED finding.
• No Foundry/Products transfer price. Not disclosed. This is why neither segment margin is independently verifiable.
• No transcript corpus. Mention-frequency uses quarterly earnings-release exhibits, one source across nine quarters. No prepared-remarks versus Q&A split is available, and no finding is read as carrying prepared-remarks weight.