Phase Space AI

Intuit

INTU · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+3.0%
Required CAGR
0.1%
Demonstrated
0.1%
Terminal margin
33.0%
Exit multiple
12.5x
Company state
A

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
14% below the memo price
$284.81

A daily close below $284.81 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: the DIY unit decline becomes structural, and the replacement revenue is human-delivered. The units are already falling and management's stated response is to compete on price for the under-$50k cohort and monetise elsewhere — i.e. it is conceding the DIY price point rather than defending it. The CEO's own defence against agent disintermediation is *"no matter how good software becomes, many customers want a human expert they trust"* — which is a real argument and also an admission that the moat has moved from software to labour. Intuit is simultaneously integrating Anthropic's Cla

Documents

INTU Catalyst Calendar INTU Financial Model Notes INTU Research INTU Trade Construction INTU Valuation