Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Intuit [INTU]

Intuit [INTU] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Every item is sourced to a filing or a call. Where a date is a pattern inference it is labelled as such — a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.


Dated by the company

Date Event Why it moves the implied path
2026-07-31 Q4 / FY2026 fiscal year end. The 2026 Plan restructuring charge of $300–340m lands here: "primarily in the fourth fiscal quarter ending July 31, 2026" (10-Q Note 13). A 17% workforce reduction. Q4 already runs an 8–9% operating margin; a $300–340m charge on ~$4.3bn of revenue takes it deeply negative on a GAAP basis. The charge is disclosed in advance, so a bad Q4 GAAP print is not new information — but it sets the FY2027 base effect flagged below.
2026-10-31 Q1 FY2027 quarter end. The 2026 Plan is "substantially complete by the first quarter of fiscal 2027." First clean quarter with the new cost base. The single most important observation for the 33.0% terminal margin: does a 17% headcount cut show up in the operating margin, or was it competed away?
Late Jan – 2027-04-15 The FY2027 tax season. IRS filing season and the individual filing deadline. The decisive test of the entire thesis. Three specific things to watch: (i) do TurboTax federal units stop falling — they fell this year, with ~2m manual DIY filers lost against an expected +1% in filings; (ii) does TurboTax Live keep compounding — 53% of TurboTax revenue, +38% customers, +36% revenue in FY2026; (iii) does the new value-based pricing for the under-$50k cohort hold revenue share, which management says is the goal ("we expect to maintain our revenue share in the DIY category").
2027-04-30 Q3 FY2027 quarter end — the tax quarter. This is where the answer prints. Q3 FY2026 grew 10.4% on matched periods against Q1's 18.3% and Q2's 17.4%. A second consecutive sub-11% matched quarter takes demonstrated growth below the required 11.2% and flips the Valuation Criteria.
Ongoing Claude Cowork integration into Intuit Enterprise Suite — named by the CEO in Q2 FY2026 Q&A: "we are excited about integrating Claude Cowork's capabilities into the Intuit Enterprise Suite because there are functionalities they offer that we can leverage without the need for development on our side." No date given. Cuts both ways and is the clearest expression of the bear case: the general-purpose agent that could disintermediate DIY tax and SMB bookkeeping is being embedded inside the product. Watch whether it appears as a partnership or as a competing surface.
Ongoing Mid-market sales capacity expanding ~30%, "supported by favorable LTV to CAC economics" (Q2 FY2026). QBO Advanced + Intuit Enterprise Suite online-ecosystem revenue +40%; contracts +50% QoQ. Mid-market is one of the three named ">30% growth engines" and the main offset to TurboTax's 7.5%.
Ongoing Mailchimp resizing. "we resized Mailchimp in the context of future growth opportunities" (Q3 FY2026 Q&A). Mailchimp is a −10pp drag on Online Services growth (reported +18% vs +28% ex-Mailchimp, Q2 FY2026). Its removal from the growth base is arithmetically accretive to reported Online Services growth. No date and no disclosed revenue line, so it cannot be tracked directly — only through the ex-Mailchimp deltas if management keeps giving them.

Recurring, dated by pattern (labelled — not company-confirmed)

Approximate date Event Basis for the estimate
~2026-08-20 Q4 / FY2026 results Earnings 8-Ks: 2026-05-20 (Q3), 2026-02-26 (Q2), 2025-11-20 (Q1). Late August is the consistent full-year slot. Not yet announced by the company.
~2026-09-02 FY2026 10-K FY2025 10-K filed 2025-09-03. Not announced. This filing is the one to read — it will carry the first full-year presentation under the two-segment structure and the completed 2026 Plan accounting.
~2026-11-19 Q1 FY2027 results Q1 FY2026 8-K filed 2025-11-20. Not announced.
~2027-02-25 Q2 FY2027 results Q2 FY2026 8-K filed 2026-02-26. Not announced. Covers the first half of the tax season.
~2027-05-19 Q3 FY2027 results — the decisive print. Q3 FY2026 8-K filed 2026-05-20. Not announced.

Deliberately absent