Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 12% below the memo price
$111.32
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
+11.3%
A daily close below $111.32 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Promotion & advertising above 21.5% of net sales for a full year. The terminal margin assumes exactly 21.0%, which is management's own target. Overshoot means the brands need more support than guided, and 0.5pp of revenue is ~$8m of EBIT.
Royalty expense above 8.6% of net sales. It has drifted 7.9% → 8.1% → 8.2% and the terminal assumes 8.4%. Faster drift means the incoming brand mix is structurally more expensive.
Non-renewal of any brand in the disclosed 77%-of-sales table, or a renewal on visibly worse terms (detectable through the royalty rate). Dunhill in 2024 is the precedent that this happens.
Same-quarter DSO above 95 days. Q1'26 was 91.7d against 83.2d a year earlier, on 1.8% revenue growth — receivables grew 6.7x revenue. This is the one genuinely adverse operating trend on the name and it is the earliest warning of soft sell-through.
Revenue growth below 0% for two consecutive quarters. The required 6.7% CAGR already sits above the 1.8% latest print; outright decline breaks the reverse-DCF PASS entirely.
Exercise of the Lanvin repurchase right on 2027-07-01 at €70m.
Impairment case
Named cause: non-renewal of a top-four licence. The four largest brands — Jimmy Choo 17%, Coach 15%, Montblanc 15%, GUESS 12% — are 59% of sales and all four are licensed. GUESS runs to 2048 and Coach to 2031, both freshly renewed, so the near-term exposures are Jimmy Choo (2031) and Montblanc (2030). Neither is inside the horizon, which is why this is a downside case rather than a base case. The mechanism is real and has happened: Dunhill was discontinued in 2024 and the FY2025 10-K names it as the cause of the US revenue decline. Quantified: loss of Jimmy Choo at renewal removes 17% of reven