IREN · investment memo
NOT APPLICABLE, and null is the correct record. IREN's instrument is a SALES multiple, so no terminal EBIT margin enters the arithmetic. An EBIT-basis terminal margin would be INDETERMINATE: the company is loss-making and is retiring the segment producing 76.8% of revenue, so there is no continuing margin structure to extrapolate. The universe 14.4% constant was NOT used.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $21.99 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Named cause: the mining-to-AI air pocket, funded by a commitment letter rather than by cash. This is a specific, mechanical sequence, not a volatility statement: 1. Revenue is already −39.7% from its September-2025 peak and flat YoY. 2. Management has announced it will retire the remaining mining fleet, which is 76.8% of the latest quarter's revenue, and has flagged ~$520m of additional impairment on top of the $188.4m already taken in 9M FY26. 3. Against that, $11,902.5m of commitments must be funded, versus $2,213m of cash (down $1,047m in one quarter) and $3,688m of convertible notes alread