IREN [IREN]
As of: 2026-07-29 · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29 · Type: MEASURED — dated events that would confirm or refute the implied path. Consumed by monitoring; blocks nothing.
Every date below is either taken from a filing or explicitly marked as an inference from filing history. Per the brief: a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar. Nothing here is invented.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Microsoft Agreement executed — dedicated GPU services in tranches at Childress | 10-Q Q3 FY26 | already occurred. The anchor contract. Its total value and term are not in the reviewed extract — the highest-value open item |
| 2026-02-04 | Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan binding commitment letter, ~$3.6bn delayed-draw, GPU-secured, subject to conditions | 10-Q Q3 FY26 | already occurred. Drawdown, or failure to draw, is the single largest solvency variable |
| 2026-05-04 | Mirantis merger agreement signed | 10-Q Q3 FY26 subsequent events | pending — subject to regulatory approvals |
| 2026-05-07 | Ingenostrum / Nostrum Group SPA signed, ~EUR 165m, ~65% cash | 10-Q Q3 FY26 subsequent events | pending — consumes cash |
| May 2026 | 5-year fixed-price power hedges executed for Horizons 1–4 | 10-Q Q3 FY26 subsequent events | already occurred, and not yet reflected in the accounts |
| Post-2026-03-31, no date given | Announced transition of all remaining Bitcoin mining to AI Cloud Services; ~$520m of additional impairment estimated | 10-Q Q3 FY26 subsequent events | the defining event. Watch for it landing in Q4 FY26 or Q1 FY27 |
| ~late August 2026 (estimated from the 2025-08-28 prior-year 10-K filing date; NOT company-confirmed) | FY2026 10-K, year ended 2026-06-30 | filing cadence | first sight of the $520m impairment, Q4 revenue after two down quarters, and whether AI Cloud clears the mining decline |
| Months 1–12 from 2026-03-31 (i.e. to 2027-03-31) | $307,950,000 of RPO scheduled to be recognised | 10-Q Q3 FY26, RPO note | a contractual, dated revenue floor — the most concrete forward number in this cluster |
| Months 13–24 | $265,198,000 of RPO | same | |
| Months 25–60 | remainder of the $710,272,000 | same | |
| 2028 (protocol) | next bitcoin halving | Bitcoin protocol | largely moot if the mining exit completes first — a rare case where the halving is de-risked by the pivot |
| Date | Event | Why it matters to IREN |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 (protocol-determined) | Bitcoin halving | halves the block reward on the mining leg. Not a forecast — it is in the protocol |
| continuous | Global network hashrate / difficulty | IREN's 10-Q quantifies the mechanism: its own hashrate rose to 36.0 EH/s and it still mined fewer bitcoin, because implied global hashrate rose faster. The denominator always grows |
| 2026-12-31 | CORZ's hosted-mining operations conclude | removes a competitor's hosted capacity from the market |
| Q3 2026 | WYFI's $865m Nscale contract reaches full revenue contribution | the cluster's cleanest read on realised contracted AI economics — a live benchmark for every claimed pipeline |