Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

IREN [IREN]

IREN Ltd [IREN] — Financial Model Notes

As of: 2026-07-29 · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29 · All figures traced to primary EDGAR filings.

Per the brief, the screen's inputs were not trusted. Share count, TTM revenue and net cash were independently verified against primary filings, and net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS was cross-checked for scale. Every discrepancy is reported; none is silently adopted.

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Verified inputs

Quarterly revenue reconstruction (fiscal year ends 30 June)

EPS cross-check

IREN reports EarningsPerShareBasic but the Q3 FY26 net-income figure was not extracted in this pass, so a formal net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS tie was not completed for IREN. Reported as a gap rather than asserted. Scale sanity does hold on revenue: $144.795m of quarterly revenue across ~357m shares is $0.41/share, consistent with a $29.33 share price at 16.0x EV/Sales.

Net cash reconstruction — the largest screen error in the cluster

Screen error: $3,839.9m — the single largest net-cash error found in this cluster, and a sign error. The screen reported IREN as holding $2.2bn of net cash when it in fact holds $1.6bn of net debt. Mechanical cause: IREN tags its debt as ConvertibleLongTermNotesPayable, not LongTermDebtNoncurrent; the resolver looked for the latter, found nothing, and still set net_cash_complete: true. Note the corroborating signal the scan already had and ignored: us-gaap:Liabilities of $4,600,369,000 against a computed debt of $0 — a $4.6bn contradiction inside the same record.

Modelling notes and hazards

1. Fiscal year ends 30 June. "Q3 FY2026" is the March-2026 calendar quarter. Do not align IREN's quarters with the December-FY names (HUT, CORZ, BTDR, WYFI, SHAZ) without re-basing.
2. An IFRS→US GAAP basis change sits in the history. FY2022–FY2024 are 20-F filings tagged ifrs-full:*; FY2025 onward are 10-K/10-Q tagged us-gaap:*. Both families are in companyfacts and overlap on the same dates with different values (e.g. ifrs-full:Liabilities $564,188,000 @ 2025-03-31 versus us-gaap:Liabilities $1,122,835,000 @ 2025-06-30). Pick one basis explicitly.
3. Q4 must be derived as FY minus 9M — no separate XBRL duration fact exists.
4. The mining and AI legs must be modelled separately. They have different cost structures (mining: merchant power; AI: hedged power), different margins, and one of them is being deliberately shut down.
5. The ~$520m impairment is disclosed as an estimate, not booked. It is a subsequent event and is not in the 2026-03-31 balance sheet.
6. The May-2026 power hedges are not in the accounts.
7. Terminal value exceeds 60% of EV, so the reverse DCF is the mandatory primary long-horizon output. It was not solvable because the exit multiple is UNIDENTIFIED; the required-parameter analysis substitutes and is disclosed as such.
8. The share count of 357,378,674 is carried from the screen and was NOT independently verified against the Q3 FY26 10-Q cover page. Every other share count in this cluster was verified to a filing cover or balance sheet. This is the one unverified input in the IREN file and it is flagged rather than presented as confirmed. A 1% error moves EV by ~$105m.

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Reproduction

Commit: e67ab6405055a342b54a5ef03613a3650d59ab05