IREN [IREN]
As of: 2026-07-29 · Spot: $29.325 (2026-07-29 close) · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29
This memo issues no position verdict — no Long, Short, Watchlist or Avoid. It scores Criteria and outputs an analysis. Whether this analysis justifies a position is a question about a particular book, and the book decides. What follows are the constraints any position would face, not a recommendation.
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Shares traded 2026-07-29 | 2,707,413 |
| Dollar volume | $79.40m |
| Verdict | PASS — the most liquid name in the cluster |
2026-07-29 was a high-volume down day across the entire complex, so this figure is generous relative to a
normal session. Liquidity constrains position sizing, never admission (criteria.md).
No options chain was pulled for IREN. Liquidity Criteria is explicit: "Any proposed options structure requires the actual chain pulled first — open interest and quoted size for the specific strikes and expiry… A vehicle that cannot be filled is not a vehicle." The HCA precedent (maximum open interest of 18 contracts across an entire March-2027 chain) is why this is a hard rule rather than a preference.
Accordingly no strikes, expiries, Greeks or structures are proposed. Doing so without the chain would
manufacture an uninvestable vehicle. Pulling the IREN chain from
data.alpaca.markets/v1beta1/options/snapshots is a prerequisite to any options expression.
Common stock only, until a chain is pulled and open interest and quoted size are verified at specific strikes.
criteria.md names inverse-volatility sizing as the active protection on the Downside Criteria, "because a
fat-left-tail name is almost always a high-volatility name and is sized down automatically."
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 252-day realised volatility (screen record) | 106.9% (scan_v3 vol_252d_pct) |
| Implication | among the highest in any book; inverse-vol sizing cuts this hard |
| One-day move, 2026-07-29 | −13.5% |
On 2026-07-29 every name in this complex fell together:
| HIVE | HUT | IREN | CORZ | BTDR | WYFI | SHAZ | CRWV | APLD | NBIS | WULF | CIFR | RIOT | MARA | CLSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −11.1% | −12.8% | −13.5% | −12.4% | −13.1% | −12.7% | −10.9% | −9.6% | −12.7% | −13.7% | −12.8% | −13.3% | −14.0% | −11.6% | −10.8% |
Fifteen names, one factor, a 4.4pp range. Any two positions in this cluster are effectively one position.
This is a book-level exposure and correlation-limit question, not a single-name question, and it must be
resolved by portfolio-book before any IREN position is sized. Treating cluster members as independent names
would breach the correlation limit while appearing diversified.
Confirming observable: AI Cloud Services revenue clearing the mining decline, so that total revenue inflects upward. AI Cloud is $33.6m/quarter and mining is $111.2m/quarter and falling — total revenue turns positive when AI Cloud roughly doubles again. The $307,950,000 of RPO contractually scheduled for the twelve months to 2027-03-31 is the dated floor to measure against, and it is the most concrete forward number in this cluster.
Refuting observable, in priority order: 1. Failure to draw the $3.6bn Goldman/JPMorgan facility, or a material worsening of its conditions. It is a conditional commitment letter secured by GPUs, and it is the bridge across $11.9bn of commitments. 2. RPO failing to grow as Microsoft tranches are meant to become unconditional. RPO of $710m against $11.9bn of commitments is 6%; if that ratio does not close, interpretation (2) in the valuation file — the price is wrong — is the correct one. 3. Impairment exceeding the flagged ~$520m, which would indicate the retrofit economics are worse than management's preliminary assessment. 4. A fourth consecutive quarter of falling total revenue.
net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS), not done in this pass.portfolio-book — 15 correlated names moved as one on
2026-07-29.