Catalyst Calendar

iRhythm Technologies [IRTC]

iRhythm [IRTC] — Catalyst Calendar (Catalyst Criteria, MEASURED)

Rule observed: never fabricate a date. Each entry is CONFIRMED (in a filing or a statutory schedule), INFERRED (from the company's own prior-year cadence, with the basis given), or REPORTED–UNVERIFIED (third-party press I could not confirm against a primary source). A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.

Confirmed — in filings

Date	Event	Source	Significance
2025-12-12	DOJ Civil Division, Commercial Litigation Branch civil investigative demand re Zio AT and associated claims for reimbursement	10-K Note 8; 10-Q Note 7	The FCA unit. Open. The single largest unquantifiable risk on the name.
2026-01-01	CY2026 Medicare PFS rates effective — 93247 to $253.18 (+7.8% vs $234.84)	10-K confirms an increase for 93247/93243/93229; amount verified independently (see below)	The dominant positive already in the numbers.
2026-02-19	FY2025 10-K filed	`irtc-20251231.htm`	Where the full legal inventory is disclosed.
2026-04-30	Q1-2026 results + 10-Q	8-K and 10-Q, both 2026-04-30	Revenue $199.39m (+25.7%), GM 70.9%, operating loss −$16.19m.
2026-05-27 / 06-03 / 06-10	Three 8-Ks	`irtc-20260527/0603/0610.htm`	Content not reviewed in this run — an open item, flagged rather than characterised.

Statutory schedule — CONFIRMED cadence, dates approximate to CMS's published rhythm

Window	Event	Why it is the dominant catalyst
~July 2026	CY2027 PFS proposed rule	CMS publishes proposed RVUs and the conversion factor. The first observable signal on 93247 for 2027. May already have been released as of this memo's date — not verified in this run.
~1 November 2026	CY2027 PFS FINAL rule	THE event on this name. Sets 93247/93243/93229 national payment for CY2027. The 10-K names rate reduction as the primary business risk: "CMS may reduce the rates for the CPT codes assigned to our services in the future." Note the structural asymmetry: 93247 is 7.57 of 7.58 RVUs practice expense, and IRTC's gross margin has risen 4.6pp in two years — its own cost reductions are the input by which CMS can justify a cut.
2027-01-01	CY2027 rates effective	Mechanical follow-through.

Inferred from prior-year cadence — approximate

Window	Event	Cadence basis
late July / early Aug 2026	Q2-2026 results	Q2-2025 reported 2025-07-31; Q2-2024 late July. Likely imminent relative to this memo's date (2026-07-29) — treat as days away, not weeks.
late Oct 2026	Q3-2026 results	Q3-2025 reported 2025-10-30
mid-Feb 2027	FY2026 results + 10-K	FY2025 reported 2026-02-19; FY2024 2025-02-20

Reported but UNVERIFIED — do not act on

A CY2027 proposed rate of ~$370 for CPT 93247 appeared in third-party trade coverage ("iRhythm Technologies Gets Boost from CMS in 2027 Reimbursements"). I could not verify this against CMS's own rule or file, and the same source described it as a "3.0% year-over-year increase," which is arithmetically inconsistent with a move from $253.18 to $370 (+46%). One of the two figures is wrong. Neither is used anywhere in the valuation. Recorded only so the reader knows a positive CY2027 signal has been reported and that it is unconfirmed. Resolving it against the primary CMS file is the highest-value next data task on this name.

Undated but named — no company-published date

Zio MCT ramp — the growth vector; management mentions tripled (8 → 24 over six quarters). No revenue attribution, no dated milestone disclosed.
Primary-care channel expansion — consistently discussed (7–17 mgmt mentions per call) with no dated target.
International / Japan — discussed 4–19 times per call; no dated regulatory or launch milestone disclosed.
FDA warning-letter closure (open since 2023-05-25) — no date; the company says only that it is "continuing to work with the agency." Closure would be a material positive and is genuinely undated.
July-2024 483 observation closure (Cypress and San Francisco) — no date.
Class II recall termination — closure requested March 2023; "FDA has not yet confirmed the termination or completion of this recall to us." Still open in the FDA public database. No date.
DOJ CID resolution or escalation — no date, and CIDs carry no statutory disclosure deadline. Escalation to a complaint or a government intervention decision would be the observable event.

Monitoring note

Unlike DOCS — whose core KPI (NRR) is disclosed annually, leaving a ~10-month monitoring gap — IRTC's thesis is monitorable at quarterly frequency (revenue, gross margin, operating margin, DSO all in the 10-Q) plus an annual statutory rate observation each November. The reimbursement rate, the dominant variable, is observable on a published government schedule rather than at management's discretion. That is a structurally better monitoring position than most names in this book.

Generated from each name's analysis.json. Figures are research output, not investment advice. Gaps are shown as “—” rather than filled: a missing input is recorded as indeterminate, never estimated.