Phase Space AI

Intuitive Surgical

ISRG · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-8.6%
Required CAGR
26.0%
Demonstrated
17.4%
Terminal margin
20.0%
Exit multiple
29.9x
Company state
A
Terminal margin basis

HEADLINE FIGURE, AND THE MEMO DISCLOSES IT AS DEFECTIVE. It is not a derived terminal margin at all: reports/scan/ISRG_analysis.json has no terminal_margin key, and the published required_cagr_pct inverts exactly to a FLAT 20.0% applied to EVERY name in the universe - the hardcoded 0.20 that coverage_scan.py's own comments record as a defect fixed after these scan files were written. It is used as the headline only because the update spec instructs use of the pre-computed inputs. ISRG's OWN current operating margin is 29.3%. See terminal_margin_pct_own and the flag below.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
15% below the memo price
$308.81
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+18.0%

A daily close below $308.81 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

01 Company Research 01b Unpublished Scoping and TAM 02 Financial Model Notes 03 Valuation and Factor Scorecard 05 Trade Construction 06 Catalyst Calendar