ISSC · investment memo
Held fixed and named in ISSC_Valuation.md 1.1. Sits 1.4pp below the TTM EBIT margin of 25.4%.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $15.18 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause 1 — the acquisition engine stalls (probability 35%). ~80% of a $100m facility drawn; net debt ~$72.7m against ~$23m of TTM EBIT. With no sixth deal and organic growth at the reported ~2–13%, ISSC becomes a $90–100m-revenue, low-growth avionics supplier. At 10x EV/EBIT on ~$24m of EBIT = $240m EV − $72.7m net debt = $167m equity → $9.35/share, −47%. Named cause 2 — customer concentration event (probability 15%). 57% of revenue from "a limited number of customers," on contracts terminable at the customer's convenience, heavily DoD retrofit. The loss of one significant programme on a