Kodiak Gas Services [KGS]
Screen: reports/scan_universe/KGS_analysis.json, as-of 2026-07-30, Quality PASS, Valuation PASS
at +13.8pp.
| screen field | screen value | verified value | source | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
shares |
88,771,027 | 88,771,027 | 10-Q cover page 2026-05-06 | exact |
revenue_ttm |
1,324,217,000 | 1,324,217,000 | four filed quarters | exact |
net_cash |
−2,692,640,000 | −2,692,640,000 | cash $94,363k − debt $2,787,003k | exact |
ev |
7,921,253,490 | 7,921,253,490 | exact, and LEASE-EXCLUSIVE | |
op_margin_pct |
26.0 | 25.99 (FY2025 filed) | EDGAR OperatingIncomeLoss |
correct — screen used EDGAR, not AV |
revenue_cagr_demonstrated |
22.7 | 4.9 organic | Q1'26 vs Q1'25 | invalid — acquisition artefact (screen's own note flags it) |
exit_multiple |
24.2, GROWTH_MATCHED, peer_n: 223 |
7.5x | ROIC identity | invalid — 223-name "peer" set is a universe median |
terminal_margin |
0.26, "own trailing operating margin" | 0.270 | own TTM filed | correct in method, one quarter stale |
required_cagr_pct |
8.9 | 28.2 | reverse_dcf, identity exit multiple | wrong by 19.3pp |
valuation_margin_pp |
+13.8 | −23.3 | sign flip, 37.1pp swing |
The screen's inputs are almost all correct. Its verdict is not. Every balance-sheet and revenue figure ties to the filing exactly — this is the cleanest screen record validated in this cluster. The failure is entirely in two derived parameters: an acquisition-contaminated demonstrated CAGR and a 223-name exit-multiple anchor.
operatingIncome overstates KGS filed income from operationsNot on the DATA_DEFECTS.md list. Measured:
| period | AV operatingIncome |
EDGAR filed OperatingIncomeLoss |
error |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $244.1m | $244,110k | 0.0% — clean |
| FY2024 | $249.4m | $249,450k | 0.0% — clean |
| Q1 2025 | $100.6m | $89,186k | +12.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $106.3m | $99,730k | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $104.0m | $64,200k | +62.0% (+$39.8m) |
| Q4 2025 | $103.7m | $86,894k | +19.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $116.5m | $106,812k | +9.1% |
| FY2025 | $414.6m | $340,010k | +21.9% (+$74.6m), 5.7pp of margin |
The excluded lines are Kodiak's loss on sale of assets ($61.6m FY2025) and long-lived asset impairment ($6.3m). AV was clean on FY2023 and FY2024, when those lines were smaller — so this is not "AV is always wrong on this field," it is AV drops certain operating charges and the error scales with them. Per the defect-list discipline: this is a hypothesis with measured instances, not a universal rule.
Consequence if unchecked: a terminal margin set from AV would be 31.7% instead of 27.0%, and
steady_state_check.py — which consumes AV — reported KGS's "latest margin" as 31.7% for exactly
this reason.
av_vs_edgar.py returned VERIFIED while the above was truesym cmp dis worst inv cal outcome
KGS 4 0 -- 0 0 VERIFIED
Four periods compared, zero disagreements. The tool compares revenue; it does not compare operating income. A VERIFIED result from it is evidence about the top line only. Recorded so the next reader does not treat VERIFIED as a clean bill of health for the income statement.
| field | result |
|---|---|
SPLITS |
queried explicitly, returned {"symbol":"KGS","data":[]} — no split, no reverse split |
cashAndShortTermInvestments |
not applicable — shortTermInvestments and longTermInvestments are both absent from the balance sheet, so there is nothing for the composite to silently exclude. Cash $94,363k ties to the 10-Q |
commonStockSharesOutstanding |
not used; the 10-Q cover-page figure was used instead and it matches the screen exactly |
| revenue, all quarters | ties to EDGAR to the dollar |
EARNINGS_ESTIMATES |
returned 16 records with full 7/30/60/90-day revision history — not the empty-array failure seen on KLAC/ZS/NOW |
EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT |
9 of 12 quarters, speaker/title/sentiment populated |
ebit, ebitda, sellingGeneralAndAdministrative |
not used — all opex lines taken from the FY2025 10-K |
normalized_fcf.pyDocumented in full in KGS_Research.md §6. Two offsetting errors on this name:
D&A-as-maintenance-capex overstates sustaining spend 2.0x (21.1% vs a disclosed 10.6%), and
revenue-per-dollar-of-growth-capex overstates capital efficiency ~10x ($1.44 vs a physical
$0.14) by crediting the CSI Compressco revenue step to organic capex. They cancel to within 1pp
here. They will not cancel on a name that is acquisitive without being capital-intensive.
revenue-generating horsepower × revenue per horsepower, because
that is the only decomposition the disclosure supports. Q1 2026: 4,389,412 HP × $69.94/quarter.