Phase Space AI

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals

KNSA · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+34.9%
Required CAGR
13.7%
Demonstrated
58.9%
Terminal margin
25.0%
Exit multiple
22.5x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

DERIVED from the Regeneron 50/50 profit split, not assumed. Pre-opex contribution capped at 0.5 x (1 - COGS 9.7%) = 45.2% of revenue; at SG&A 16% / R&D 10% this gives 24.7%, ceiling 28.6% at SG&A 13% / R&D 8%. The screen's framework basis was 16.2%.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
14% below the memo price
$67.55
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+20.3%

A daily close below $67.55 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

KNSA Catalyst Calendar KNSA Financial Model Notes KNSA Research KNSA Trade Construction KNSA Valuation