Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals [KNSA]

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals [KNSA] — Financial Model Notes

As of 2026-07-29. Every figure below is quoted from a named primary filing. Derived figures are labelled [derived] and their formula is stated. Nothing is estimated without a label.

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1. Revenue — quarterly, and how the TTM window was built

All figures $m. Source: SEC XBRL RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, cross-checked against the EX-99.1 press-release income statements.

[derived] Q4 figures. US registrants do not tag Q4 separately. Each Q4 above = FY total − sum(Q1..Q3), which is exact because the FY and Q1–Q3 figures are all filed. Example: Q4 2025 = 677.564 − 137.785 − 156.797 − 180.855 = 202.127.

[derived] TTM. Q3'25 + Q4'25 + Q1'26 + Q2'26 = 180.855 + 202.127 + 214.266 + 243.600 = 840.848. Four consecutive, non-overlapping 90-day periods — the window does not silently span 15 months.

Why this matters. The Tier-1 screen used $754.045m, the TTM to 2026-03-31, and did not pick up the 10-Q filed the same day it ran. The screen's own revenue_stale_days: 119 and data_quality_ok: false flags were correct.

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2. Income statement — TTM build

[derived] TTM COGS = FY2025 77.673 − 1H2025 36.471 + 1H2026 44.368 = 85.570. [derived] TTM collaboration = FY2025 229.545 − 1H2025 96.208 + 1H2026 163.646 = 296.983. [derived] Q4 2025 operating income = FY2025 77.221 − 9M2025 57.453 = 19.768. [derived] Q4 2025 net income = FY2025 59.005 − 9M2025 44.806 = 14.199.

Ratios

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3. The Regeneron split — the model's most important mechanic

Under the September 2017 Regeneron License Agreement, ARCALYST profits are split evenly, after deducting from net sales: (i) Kiniksa's COGS, (ii) customary commercialisation expense including the field force, and (iii) marketing/promotion subject to specified limits. Regeneron's half is reported as collaboration expenses.

[derived] Solving the allowed deduction from actuals. From collaboration = 0.5 × (revenue − COGS − allowed):

Roughly 30% of Kiniksa's selling cost falls outside the deduction and is borne alone.

[derived] The reduced-form operating-income identity:

EBIT ≈ 0.5 × (Revenue − COGS) − R&D − 0.65 × SG&A

Validation, Q2 2026: 0.5 × (243.600 − 23.572) − 40.899 − 0.65 × 63.866 = 27.60 versus reported 27.194 — a 1.5% residual. Good enough to drive a terminal-margin model; not good enough to forecast a quarter.

[derived] Terminal margin ceiling. With COGS at 9.7% of revenue, maximum pre-opex contribution is 0.5 × (1 − 0.097) = 45.2% of revenue.

Model rule: do not assume a terminal EBIT margin above ~30% for ARCALYST revenue. It is arithmetically unreachable while the Regeneron agreement is in force. KPL-387 revenue is not subject to this split and should be modelled at roughly double the contribution margin per revenue dollar.

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4. Balance sheet and cash

Net cash used in the valuation: $525.928m (cash + short-term investments; no debt).

Cash flow, six months ended 30 June:

Investing outflow is portfolio mix (deploying into longer-dated Treasuries), not capex.

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5. Share count — four classes, and the scale check

Rights are identical except for voting, transferability and conversion (10-Q Note 12), so EPS is computed on the combined base and no dual-class EV adjustment is required.

Scale check. Q2 2026 net income $25.432m ÷ 77,577,675 = $0.3278 vs filed basic EPS $0.33; ÷ 83,398,051 = $0.3050 vs filed diluted EPS $0.30. ✅ Consistent.

The screen used 82,409,703 — 5.6% above basic outstanding, 6.4% below diluted, matching neither, and inflating market capitalisation by ~$343m at spot.

Dilution overhang: diluted exceeds basic by 5.82m shares (7.5%), from options, RSUs and performance shares. 1H2026 financing inflow of $18.2m is net option exercise proceeds less shares tendered for employee taxes — the share count is drifting up ~1.7m per half-year, funded by employees rather than by issuance.

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6. Operating drivers — the model's engine

[derived] Patients = penetration × 14,000. Penetration and the 14,000 are both company-disclosed; the product is arithmetic.

[derived] Revenue per patient-year = annualised revenue ÷ average of opening and closing patients:

Model rule: revenue per patient-year grows at +3%/yr forward, not +14%. The 2023–2025 rate was driven by persistency (duration 20 → 36 months), and management states duration now equals the median duration of disease. The lever is exhausted; the 1H26 deceleration to +7.4% is the first evidence.

Guidance history — the estimate-revision record:

Five consecutive raises and a beat of the final range. No cut in the series.

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7. Contractual commitments (10-Q Note 13)

All fundable from $525.9m of cash with no debt.

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8. Model assumptions register — what is filed, what is derived, what is assumed