Lumentum Holdings [LITE]
Built 2026-07-29. Every date is a filed date, a company-stated window, or an inference explicitly labelled as such. No date is fabricated.
| Date | Event | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-08-10 to 08-19 (window) | Q4 / FY2026 results + first FY2027 guide | Tests the Q4 guide of $960–1,010m and — the number that matters most — the 35–36% non-GAAP operating margin, which is far above anything LITE has printed and on which the 28.0% terminal margin rests. The FY2027 guide is what the +37.3% target requires (~+64%) | FY2025 results 8-K filed 2025-08-12; FY2024 pattern identical. FY2026 date not yet announced — window inferred and labelled |
| ~2026-08-15 to 08-22 (window) | FY2026 10-K — the first annual report under single-segment reporting | The FY2025 10-K was the last to disclose the Cloud & Networking / Industrial Tech split ($1,410.8m / $234.2m; segment profit $264.5m / $12.1m). This filing will not. It is the point at which the 47.3% revenue decline and 92.1% profit decline in Industrial Tech becomes permanently undetectable. Also carries the FY2026 customer and receivables concentration tables | 10-Q Q1FY26 language: "we determined we operate in a single reporting segment"; FY2025 10-K filed 2025-08-19 |
| ~2026-11-04 (window) | Q1 FY2027 results | First read on whether the 35–36% operating margin held for a second quarter, and on whether cloud-transceiver ASP erosion (disclosed qualitatively in the 10-Q) has begun to outpace volume | FY2026 Q1 results 8-K filed 2025-11-04 |
| ~2026-12-01 (window) | Annual meeting | Prior-year proxy filed 2025-10-07 for a 2025-11-19 meeting | DEF 14A 2025-10-07 |
| ~2027-02-03 (window) | Q2 FY2027 results | CPO and the full OCS ramp should be revenue-bearing and separately quantified by here | FY2026 Q2 results 8-K filed 2026-02-03 |
| Window | Event | Company language | Consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-CY2026 | LITE's own 1.6T transceivers begin shipping | "We have expectation to be shipping 1.6T transceivers sometime in the middle of next year, and those will be at the early part of the customer ramp" (CEO) | The single most important product date on this name. COHR is already in 1.6T revenue; LITE is roughly a year behind on its own module |
| Late Q2 CY2026 | 102.4T switch silicon availability — the industry gate on 1.6T transceiver qualification | "102.4 switch until really, I would say, late Q2 next year calendar" (President, Global Business Units) | An industry-wide gate, not LITE-specific. It sets the earliest date at which broad 1.6T module demand can qualify, and it slips for everyone if the silicon slips |
| Ongoing, 6–8 quarters | Capacity ramp under multiyear customer commitments | "Those customers in return have given us multiyear commitments... as we continue to ramp capacity through the next probably 6 or 8 quarters" | Asserted, not quantified — no value, term or counterparty. This is the gap between the required 49.61% CAGR and what is evidenced |
| Ongoing | Greensboro gallium-arsenide → indium phosphide conversion | "plans to convert the facility from gallium arsenide to indium phosphide are well underway... we expect to take advantage of a significant number of the tools that already exist" | A capital-efficient route into the constraint currently rationing COHR's datacenter growth |
| CY2026–27 | CPO first material revenue | "we are only just beginning to unlock the massive potential of OCS and CPO" | CPO is the most-interrogated topic in the cluster (15 prepared / 8 in Q&A), and the technology that would restructure the value chain |
| No date given | $2 billion quarterly revenue goal | "our $2 billion quarterly revenue goal as we articulated at our OFC event" | $8bn annualised — less than half the $18.7bn FY2031 revenue the current price requires. The company's own ambition does not reach the required level, and no date is attached |
| ~March 2027 | OFC 2027 | LITE has used OFC as its OCS/CPO/1.6T disclosure venue and to set revenue milestones | Historically the highest-density product-news event |
| Item | Detail | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Convertible note conversions, continuous | As of 2026-04-30 LITE had received early conversion requests totalling $500.8m of principal, settling principal in cash and the excess in shares. All four series are in the money (2029 Notes at $69.54 against a $602 share price) | Each conversion is a cash outflow of principal plus share issuance. The diluted count is a function of the share price and rises as the stock rises |
| 2026 Notes maturity | $468.7m principal outstanding after an $843.1m partial repurchase funded from the 2032 Notes | Near-term cash claim |
| NVIDIA Series A Preferred | 2.9m shares at $695.31, issued 2026-03-02, 1:1 convertible at holder option after HSR clearance | HSR expiry/termination is an unscheduled but real event — it is the point at which NVIDIA may convert. NVIDIA is currently 15.4% under water on the position |