Lam Research [LRCX]
As of 2026-07-29 · framework v1.5.1 · Catalyst Criteria type: MEASURED
Rule observed: no catalyst date is fabricated. Where a date is not company-confirmed it is marked ESTIMATED with the basis for the estimate, and where it is unknown it is left absent. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Status | What it tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Oct 2026 | Q1 FY2027 results | ESTIMATED from the historical late-October cadence | The decisive event for this name. Does DSO retrace from 72.5 days toward 60, or hold/rise? That single number discriminates between the benign (shipment timing) and adverse (pulled-forward revenue) readings of the +58.1% receivables build |
| ~Aug 2026 | FY2026 10-K filing | ESTIMATED — the FY2025 10-K was filed 2025-08-11; FY2026 ended 2026-06-30 | FY2026 contract liabilities, the ASC 606 transaction-price-not-yet-recognised table, China share, and the systems-by-market split (does memory finally exceed 42%?) |
| Reported | Q4 FY2026 results (quarter ended 2026-06-30) | ALREADY REPORTED — revenue $6,722.2m (+15.1% sequential), 51.7% gross margin, 37.4% operating margin | The sequential jump that created the receivables question |
| 2024-10-03 | 10-for-1 stock split | CONFIRMED, PAST | Historical; AV and Alpaca are both on the post-split basis |
No Investor Day or product-launch date is asserted — none confirmed from a company source in this run.
The Catalyst Criteria exists to date events that would move the implied path, not merely the price. For this name the implied path fails by 23.3pp, and the required revenue CAGR is 39.7%. The events that matter are therefore the ones that speak to backlog coverage and cycle position, not to the next quarter's revenue beat: