MDB · investment memo
NO TERMINAL EBIT MARGIN IS UNDERWRITTEN, and null is the correct record. The memo's primary instrument is an EV/SALES reverse DCF (8.0x exit), so no terminal margin enters the arithmetic that produced the required 12.6% CAGR. The memo's SECOND solve inverts for the terminal margin the price REQUIRES: 31.4% at a 15x EBIT exit, 23.6% at 20x, 18.9% at 25x, 15.7% at 30x - against about 17.2% earned today before SBC, i.e. a 6.4pp gap at 20x. Those are required values, not underwritten ones, and are recorded separately below. FLAG on the superseded input: the Tier-1 record assigned exactly 0.107 to four of the five cluster names as an 'industry median of mature profitable peers', applied identically to a 66%-gross-margin consumption business and an 86%-gross-margin seat business; it produced 'reverse DCF unsolvable in range' and is rejected.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $266.59 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored on every name; it does not reject the name. Named cause: workload consolidation onto hyperscaler-native document databases, on a base only 29.7% contracted and moving to monthly-in-arrears with no commitment. Going-concern: not argued. See §9 of the research document for the balance-sheet basis. Full reasoning, the mechanism, and why the probabilities are what they are: MDB_Research.md §9.