Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

MongoDB [MDB]

MongoDB [MDB] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Framework v1.5.1. Tier-2 memo, cluster member (data & dev infrastructure). Cluster analysis: reports/clusters/Data_Dev_Infrastructure_Cluster_2026-07-29.md

This memo issues no position verdict. The book decides.

Never fabricate a date. Every entry below is either (a) an exact date stated in a filing, or (b) an expected window inferred from the company's own filing history, with that history shown so the inference can be checked. Nothing here is invented, and where only a window is available it is labelled a window.

1. Dated events — exact, from filings

Date Event Source Why it matters
FY2026 Business combination adding $121,718k of goodwill (goodwill $69,679k → $191,397k) 10-Q, goodwill note No goodwill added in Q1 FY27, so the +25.25% latest quarter contains no first-time acquisition contribution. Target not named in the quarterly filing.
2024-10 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 retired — ConvertibleDebtNoncurrent to zero companyfacts MongoDB now carries no debt of any kind.
FY2026 First share repurchases in MongoDB's history — $400,333k in FY26, $100,255k in Q1 FY27 cash flow statement 90% of SBC covered. Share count fell 1.6% YoY on a cover-page basis.
Q1 FY2027 First quarter of positive GAAP net income in MongoDB's public history: +$4.4m income statement Annual series: −$345.4m, −$176.6m, −$129.1m, −$71.2m, then +$4.4m for a quarter.

2. Expected windows — inferred from filing history, labelled as inference

Q2 FY2027 (quarter ending 2026-07-31) — expected late August 2026.

Basis for the inference: this company's own earnings-release 8-K filing dates (item 2.02) in prior years were 2025-08-26, 2024-08-29, 2023-08-31. This is a pattern-based window, not a company-confirmed date. No date has been fabricated; if a confirmed date is required before acting, it must be taken from the company's investor-relations announcement.

Why this print is the one that matters for this name:

Three lines, in order:

  1. Net ARR expansion rate. 121% as of April 2026, disclosed as an exact value but with no comparative — the reader must build the series across filings. The prior-year figure is not in the current filing, so this print is where the series becomes two points.
  2. RPO. $1,458.6m, +88.4% YoY, but the growth was one step: $994.3m (Oct-25) → $1,472.7m (Jan-26). That step is unattributed, and 46% of the base sits in the 13-to-36-month bucket.
  3. The buyback. $500.6m TTM against $555.9m of SBC (90%), with the share count down 1.6% YoY. Continuation would make MongoDB the second name in the cluster to fully offset dilution.

3. Catalyst Criteria — the score

Type: MEASURED. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own this name — unlike a short.
Dated events that would confirm or refute the implied path yes — see §1 and §2
Nearest catalyst late August 2026
Result scored

What the calendar deliberately does not contain: no product-launch dates, no conference dates, and no analyst-day dates have been included, because none was found stated in a filing. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar, and the absence is recorded rather than filled.

4. Downside Criteria — logged for the ledger

Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored on every name; it does not reject the name.

Named cause: workload consolidation onto hyperscaler-native document databases, on a base only 29.7% contracted and moving to monthly-in-arrears with no commitment.

Scenario Implied price vs spot Probability
Net ARR expansion to 108%, multiple to post-2024 min of 6.3x $224.00 -30% 25%
No net expansion (100%), multiple to 6.3x $214.00 -33% 10%
Revenue flat, multiple to 5.0x $162.00 -50% 5%

Going-concern: not argued. See §9 of the research document for the balance-sheet basis.

Full reasoning, the mechanism, and why the probabilities are what they are: MDB_Research.md §9.