MELI · investment memo
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $1,659.44 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Named cause: the credit card book. If NIMAL continues at its current rate of decline (−4.9pp year over year in Q1'26) it reaches roughly 13% by FY2027 while the book keeps compounding. At that point credit revenue growth no longer covers its own provision, the provision line stays above 12% of revenue instead of falling to 8%, and the terminal margin is 8% rather than 13.5%. At an 18x exit and 8% terminal margin the required CAGR rises to roughly 18–19% — still below the 38.9% demonstrated, so the *Criteria* verdict survives, but the 12-month target does not: NTM EBIT falls by ~40% and the tar