MercadoLibre [MELI]
Rule applied: never fabricate a date. Every entry below is either a date the company has filed or a window inferred from its own filing history, and each is labelled as such. Where a date is not disclosed, it says so.
| Date | Basis | Event | Why it moves the thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early Aug 2026 | INFERRED from filing history — Q1'26 8-K was 2026-05-07, Q2'25 8-K was 2025-08-04. Not company-confirmed. | Q2 2026 results | The first print of NIMAL after 17.8%. Also the second quarter carrying the food-delivery GMV redefinition in both the base and the comparative, so the first clean like-for-like GMV number. |
| Late Oct 2026 | INFERRED — Q3'25 8-K was 2025-10-29, 10-Q 2025-10-30. Not company-confirmed. | Q3 2026 results | Origination growth print. The terminal-margin bridge requires origination growth to converge toward revenue growth; this is the quarter where that becomes visible or does not. |
| Late Feb 2027 | INFERRED — FY2025 10-K was filed 2026-02-25. Not company-confirmed. | FY2026 10-K | Full-year credit disclosures: the past-due aging table, the allowance rollforward, write-offs, renegotiation percentage, and the FY2026 gain on sales of credit card receivables. This is the single richest disclosure event on the calendar. |
| Continuous | Q1'26 10-Q, Note 2 | Argentine official exchange rate and inflation | Inter-annual inflation is 32.7% and falling. Disinflation compresses the nominal revenue tailwind while improving credit quality — the two effects run opposite and the net is what the margin does. |
| Not disclosed | — | Any guidance date | MELI does not issue formal revenue or margin guidance. Recording this explicitly rather than inventing a guidance event. |
| Not disclosed | — | Food-delivery contribution to GMV | The company redefined the metric in Q2 2025 and has not quantified the contribution. There is no announced date on which it will. |
EARNINGS_ESTIMATES trailing-30-day revision history: 0 upward, 7 downward on both the current and
next fiscal year EPS, and 0 up / 8 down on both quarterly horizons. Revision breadth is uniformly
negative going into the August print. This is the strongest near-term argument against the 12-month
target and is stated here as well as in the valuation so it cannot be read in isolation.
Note on the AV endpoint: fiscal_date_ending is returned as null on every one of the 40 estimate
records, so the fiscal year each figure belongs to had to be inferred from magnitude against the
trailing actuals. That inference is stated rather than silently made.