VERIFIED opex bridge from the primary filing (8-K 2026-07-29), META_Valuation.md s3: gross 76.0 - R&D 26.0 - M&S 5.5 - G&A 5.0 = 39.5. Above TTM actual 38.08%; 1.9pp below FY2025's 41.4% with a named cause (depreciation on a several-times-larger PP&E base). Supersedes the prior memo, which carried 41.4% / 26.0% / 19.0% and never committed.
Risk & exit
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 15% below the memo price
$462.39
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
+34.8%
A daily close below $462.39 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
E1 — FY2027 capex guided above $180bn while Family-of-Apps revenue growth decelerates below 15%. Spending accelerating into decelerating returns is the one configuration not currently priced. FY2027
E3 — The Hyperion RVG moving from "not probable" to a recorded liability, or any disclosed impairment at the Venture. Watch each 10-Q's Note 5 maximum-exposure figure (was $45.95bn → $45.99bn).
E4 — Consensus FY2027 EPS rising materially above this model's $35.46, which would create the negative variant that does not exist today. FY2027
T1 (tape) — already satisfied. Momentum is −22.5%; a short would be with the tape. Unusually, the tape condition is the one thing already in place.
Price ≤ $430 (bear-scenario zone, ~28% below spot) with FoA revenue growth still ≥ 15% — at which point the reverse-DCF requirement falls below 30% terminal margin.
A capex cut. This would validate the option value in §7.1 of the research document, and would be the single most bullish thing Meta could announce. The 2023 precedent is direct evidence it is possible.
Impairment case
Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.