Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

MannKind Corporation [MNKD]

MannKind Corporation [MNKD] — Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED. Dated events that would confirm or refute the implied path. Built to the brief's rule: a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar. Every row carries its source and its confidence. Nothing here is invented; where a date is inferred it says so on the row.

As of 2026-07-29.

Confirmed — already happened, and material

Date Event Source Why it matters
2025-10-07 scPharmaceuticals acquisition closed. ~$296.5m cash to shareholders + $82.6m to extinguish scPharma's Perceptive debt. $250.0m drawn on the Blackstone delayed-draw term loan the same day. 8-K filed 2025-10-09 (0001193125-25-236064) The origin of both Furoscix revenue and $325m of net debt. Everything in the revenue "growth" from Q4 2025 traces here.
2026-02-25 United Therapeutics describes Tresmi on its Q4 earnings call as a "category killer" vs dry-powder inhalers, cough reduction up to 90%, plans to file in PAH and ILD "within the year" and launch "in the following year". Reported verbatim in MNKD's FY2025 10-K risk factors, filed 2026-02-26 The single largest threat to 64% of MannKind's revenue, disclosed by MannKind itself.
2026-05-06 Q1 2026 results. Revenue $90.171m (+15.1%); organic −4.7%. Operating loss $(1.667)m vs +$22.293m. Operating cash flow −$5.4m. 10-Q + 8-K, both 2026-05-06 The deceleration became visible.
2026-07-23 FDA approves Furoscix ReadyFlow (furosemide injection) for edema in adults with heart failure or CKD. Triggers a $45.0m CVR payment obligation. 8-K filed 2026-07-24 (0001193125-26-316041), Items 3.02 / 8.01 De-risks the $129.6m of IPR&D on the balance sheet. The only company-controlled positive catalyst in the file.
2026-07-24 $50.0m private placement closes. 10,440,838 shares at $3.89 + pre-funded warrants over 2,412,632 shares at $3.88 (strike $0.01). Proceeds earmarked for the $45.0m CVR payment. Same 8-K 4.2% dilution at a 0.6% discount to market, five days before the screen ran. Net new capital to the business ≈ $2m.

Dated by the company

Expected Event Source Confidence
Q2 2026 MNKD-201 (inhaled nintedanib, IPF) global Phase 2 — first patient enrolled Q1 2026 10-Q, Item 2 Company-stated
Q3 2026 MNKD-201 Phase 1b top-line data Q1 2026 10-Q, Item 2 Company-stated
by 2026-10-07 scPharma purchase price allocation finalised (one-year measurement period ends) Q1 2026 10-Q, Note on Business Combinations Company-stated
by ~2026-08-23 Resale registration statement for the July placement shares — due within 30 days of the 24 July closing 8-K 2026-07-24, Registration Rights Agreement Contractual deadline

Dated by contract — the threshold events

Deadline Event Threshold Assessment
2026-12-31 Sagard Milestone A — $50.0m cash to MannKind Tyvaso DPI net sales ≥ $1.9bn in any trailing 12 months Very unlikely. Current run rate ~$1.31bn (royalty $32.749m ÷ 10% × 4). Requires +45% in under six months against a line growing 9%. Any model carrying this inflow in 2026 is wrong.
2027-09-30 Sagard Milestone B — $45.0m cash to MannKind (only if A missed) Tyvaso DPI net sales ≥ $2.3bn in any trailing 12 months Very unlikely. Requires +76%.
2026-12-31 CVR Milestone 2 — $0.10–$0.25 per CVR from MannKind (~$6–15m) ≥ $110m trailing-12m worldwide net sales of Injection Products + Furoscix Infusors Unlikely. Furoscix annualised run rate ~$62m at Q1 2026. Requires +77%.
(achieved 2026-07-23) CVR Milestone 1 — $45.0m paid by MannKind FDA approval of an Injection Product by 2026-09-30 → $0.75/CVR Triggered. ~60m CVRs × $0.75. Contingent consideration carried at $29.0m on the 31 Mar 2026 balance sheet, so expect a remeasurement charge of roughly $16m across Q2/Q3 2026 — this is a derived inference, not a company disclosure.
2030-08-06 Blackstone term loan matures — $325.0m bullet, no amortisation before this date — No near-dated maturity wall.
2042-12-31 Sagard 1% royalty arrangement terminates; the royalty reverts to MannKind PSA, 10-K FY2025 Note 16 Far beyond any relevant horizon.

Pattern-inferred — not company-confirmed, and labelled as such

Likely Event Basis
early August 2026 Q2 2026 results. The single most important near-term data point. MannKind filed its Q2 Item-2.02 8-K on 2025-08-06, 2024-08-07 and 2023-08-07. This is a three-year pattern, not a company announcement. No date is asserted.
early November 2026 Q3 2026 results Same pattern (2025-11-05, 2024-11-07, 2023-11-07)
late February 2027 FY2026 results and 10-K Same pattern (2026-02-26, 2025-02-26, 2024-02-27)

Not dated, and that is the point

United Therapeutics' Tresmi filing and launch. UT said "within the year" (file) and "the following year" (launch) on 25 February 2026. UT has not published a specific filing date, and MannKind does not control or disclose it. It will most likely surface in a UT press release or 10-Q rather than in anything MannKind files. No date is invented here. This is the most consequential uncertain event on the calendar and it sits outside the company's own disclosure.

What to watch on the Q2 2026 print, in priority order

  1. Furoscix net revenue. Q4 2025 stub ran at $273k/day; Q1 2026 ran at $172k/day. Anything at or below ~$15.5m confirms the Q1 rate is the real rate and the entire long argument narrows to one product that has stopped growing. Anything above ~$20m confirms Q1 was a payer reset.
  2. Royalty revenue year-on-year. +9.1% in Q1 2026, from +25% and +42%. Flat or negative is the hard structural invalidation.
  3. Collaborations and services. −20.0% in Q1 2026, attributed to "timing of manufacturing activities". If it does not recover, the "timing" explanation was volume decline.
  4. Afrezza gross revenue. −5% on "lower demand" in Q1, with net revenue rescued by a 5pp gross-to-net improvement that cannot repeat indefinitely (already at 31%).
  5. Cash and the Blackstone covenant. $40.0m minimum liquidity, tested quarterly, against $133.9m at 31 March plus ~$47m raised minus $45m paid out. Comfortable, but the trend of operating cash flow (+$42.5m FY2024 → +$18.3m FY2025 → −$5.4m Q1 2026) against $29.5m/yr of cash interest is the thing to track.
  6. Any change to the Tyvaso DPI disclosure. Mentions have sat at 3–4 per earnings release for six consecutive quarters while the line grew to 64% of revenue. A further reduction, or the removal of the royalty/collaboration split, would be the Twist pattern completing.