MRVL · investment memo
BUILT through the opex bridge as State C requires, never assumed: m_gross,T 48.0% - R&D 16.0% - SG&A 5.0% - residual/other 1.0% = 26.0%. Equals the company's own 40% non-GAAP target model less a 14pp GAAP-to-non-GAAP wedge (today's wedge is 21pp; 18pp on the cleaner prior quarter). Terminal gross margin is set 2.6pp BELOW today's 50.6% actual and below guidance, with mix as the causal bridge: custom XPU carries a lower gross margin than optics/DSP and goes from ~23% of revenue to the dominant share.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $130.77 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Scenario: Distributor A's programme volume rolls off, or the custom XPU programme behind it transitions to a competitor at the next node. The specific mechanism, and it has a precedent in this cluster from tonight. Distributor A is 45% of Marvell's revenue, up from 24% two years ago. Three customers hold 75% of gross accounts receivable. Marvell's customers place cancellable purchase orders while Marvell pre-commits foundry capacity up to 52 weeks forward. Custom silicon revenue is programme-shaped: it ramps over a node generation and stops when the customer moves to the next design — which ma