Own normalised economics via an opex bridge that reconciles to the dollar against EDGAR; State A licenses this. 0.78pp BELOW the FY2026 trailing actual of 46.78%, with the gap caused, quantified and CFO-stated three quarters running (AI capacity gross-margin drag, offset by observed opex leverage: FY2026 gross margin -0.86pp while operating margin +1.15pp).
Risk & exit
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 12% below the memo price
$354.18
A daily close below $354.18 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
29-Jul-2026: FY2027 capex guided above $190bn → the payback arithmetic in Task 1 §4.4 breaks. Jul-2026
29-Jul-2026: FQ4 Azure constant-currency growth prints below 35% against a 39–40% guide. Jul-2026
29-Jul-2026: FY2027 Microsoft Cloud gross margin guided below 62% (FQ4 guide is ~64%). Jul-2026
Any quarter: commercial RPO ex-OpenAI growing below 20% y/y (it was +26% in FQ3-26). This is the cleanest single read on whether demand is broad or concentrated.
Any quarter: the disclosed 12-month RPO conversion percentage falling below 25% (10-Q R70).
FY2026 10-K (~30-Jul-2026): any shortening of the disclosed server/network useful life from 6 years. FY2026
Impairment case
Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.