NBIX · investment memo
held fixed, and argued rather than taken as a peer median. Own demonstrated: TTM GAAP EBIT margin 25.4%; FY2025 non-GAAP operating margin 29.6% ($845.5m / $2,860.5m); Q1 2026 non-GAAP 27.8%. Pharma comparator median EBIT margin 30.0%. Deliberately NOT the max(own, peer) convention taken to the wider set's 34%, because NBIX runs R&D at 35.5% of revenue against two simultaneous Phase 3 programmes and normalising to 34% would assume the pipeline stops.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $160.27 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
MEASURED. Does not block. Logged to the ledger. Named cause: Zydus wins or settles early on the INGREZZA SPRINKLE ANDA, breaking the 2038 generic wall years ahead of schedule, while the $2.9bn spent on Soleno and the ~$2.6bn/yr opex build leave no balance-sheet cushion to absorb it. The mechanism, specifically. INGREZZA is 84.6% of TTM revenue ($2,625.4m of $3,102.4m). Its generic exposure is settled to 1 March 2038 — for the *original* ANDA filers only. Zydus filed a Paragraph IV ANDA on INGREZZA SPRINKLE in March 2025 and is not a party to those settlements; NBIX sued in D. Delaware in April