Phase Space AI

ServiceNow

NOW · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-13.2%
Required CAGR
0.4%
Demonstrated
0.2%
Terminal margin
23.0%
Exit multiple
12.5x
Company state
A

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
18% below the memo price
$94.94

A daily close below $94.94 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: the product being sold is compressing the margin of the platform selling it, and the company has put that in writing. FY2026 gross-margin guidance is explicitly reduced for *"an acceleration of customer AI adoption"* and hyperscaler usage. Ex-amortisation subscription gross margin fell ~2.1pp YoY. If AI inference cost per workflow does not fall faster than AI ACV grows, then arriving at the 2030 target of 30% of ACV from AI means arriving with a materially lower gross margin than the 81% non-GAAP subscription figure guided today — and the Rule-of-60 bridge breaks at the top line o

Documents

NOW Catalyst Calendar NOW Financial Model Notes NOW Research NOW Trade Construction NOW Valuation