Phase Space AI

Natera

NTRA · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+25.0%
Required CAGR
16.1%
Demonstrated
41.1%
Terminal margin
20.0%
Exit multiple
53.4x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

WEAK INPUT, DISCLOSED AS SUCH - recorded because it is the figure the solve used, not because it is evidenced. The scan does not persist terminal_margin; 20.0% is BACK-SOLVED from the scan's own published required_cagr_pct, and back-solving returns EXACTLY 0.2000 for NTRA, GH and TWST alike, i.e. the run used a flat 20% for every name rather than a per-name figure. The memo states plainly: 'A 20% terminal EBIT margin for a company that has never been profitable is an assumption, not a measurement.' How much it matters is answered by the memo's own second sensitivity: holding 41.1% growth and 53.4x, the BREAK-EVEN terminal margin is 7.5%, so the PASS does not rest on this parameter. FLAGGED FOR FIELD-COLLAPSE: this value is shared with at least GH and TWST by construction.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price
$221.69
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+4.0%

A daily close below $221.69 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

NTRA Research NTRA Valuation and Trade