Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

NVIDIA [NVDA]

NVIDIA [NVDA] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Every item below is sourced from a filing. Where a date is not disclosed, it is recorded as NOT DISCLOSED rather than estimated. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar, so the historical filing pattern is given as context, explicitly labelled, never as a date.


Dated and disclosed

Date Event Source Why it matters
2026-04-26 Q1 FY2027 quarter end 10-Q Revenue $81,615m, gross margin 74.9%, operating margin 65.60% — the base for everything here
2026-05-20 Q1 FY2027 10-Q filed accession 0001045810-26-000052 First quarter on the new market-platform presentation; Compute/Networking split retired
2026-02-25 FY2026 10-K filed accession 0001045810-26-000021 Last full Compute vs Networking disclosure: $162,361m / $31,376m
February 2026 (month only, as filed) USG granted a licence to ship "small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers" FY2026 10-K "To date, we have not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing program." Requires US inspection pre-shipment and carries a 25% import tariff. Unpriced: Q2 FY2027 guidance assumes zero China Data Center compute revenue

Guided, quarter not yet reported

Item Guidance Source
Q2 FY2027 revenue $91.0bn ± 2%, with no Data Center compute revenue from China assumed Q1 FY2027 CFO commentary, 8-K 0001045810-26-000051
Q2 FY2027 GAAP gross margin 74.9% ± 50bp (non-GAAP 75.0%) same
Q2 FY2027 GAAP operating expenses ≈$8.5bn (non-GAAP $8.3bn) same
Q2 FY2027 implied GAAP operating margin 65.6% (91.0 × 74.9% − 8.5) — flat on the all-time high derived from the above
FY2027 GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate 16.0%–18.0% same

Q2 FY2027 earnings date: NOT DISCLOSED. NVIDIA has not announced it in any document reviewed. Context only, not a forecast: the last five reports were released 2025-05-28, 2025-08-27, 2025-11-19, 2026-02-25 and 2026-05-20 — 22 to 32 days after the respective quarter ends. Q2 FY2027 ends in late July 2026.

Contractual schedule — dated by fiscal year, from the commitments note

Fiscal 2027 ends late January 2027. All figures as of 2026-04-26 unless stated.

Fiscal year Manufacturing / supply / capacity Cloud service agreements Investment commitments Other vendor
FY2027 (remainder) $95bn $6bn $27bn ("substantially all... through the remainder of fiscal year 2027") majority of $6bn
FY2028 } $7bn
FY2029 } combined $24bn $7bn
FY2030 } across FY2028–FY2031 $5bn
FY2031 } $3bn
FY2032+ $2bn
Total $119bn $30bn $27bn $6bn

Plus: $22.7bn of leases NVIDIA "expects to commence" between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2030, "primarily data center leases," with terms of 1.8 to 20 years (FY2026 10-K lease note). Not yet on the balance sheet.

Why this table is the calendar's most useful entry: it is the only quantified forward series NVIDIA publishes, it re-prints every quarter, and its direction is the cleanest available read on whether the cycle has turned. Movement to watch, in order of information content:

  1. The total. $95.2bn (Jan 2026) → $119bn (Apr 2026), +25% q/q. Two consecutive declines is an invalidation signal (Trade Construction §4).
  2. The near-term slice. $95bn payable inside nine months against ~$74bn of implied COGS for those quarters at the guided margin — running ~28% ahead of consumption.
  3. Investment commitments, $11.4bn → $27bn in one quarter, +137%. This is the circular-financing exposure growing faster than anything else in the file.

Product-cycle events — named, no dates disclosed

Event Status Source
Rubin platform ramp On a stated one-year architecture cadence; no launch or volume date disclosed FY2026 10-K: "We continue to execute Data Center compute product introductions, bringing new advanced architectures on a one-year product cadence, including our Rubin platform." Prepared-remark mentions: 0 → 4 → 6 → 9 → 4 across FQ2026 Q1–FQ2027 Q1
Blackwell Ultra / GB300 Production units began shipping in Q2 FY2026 (quarter, not date) FY2026 10-K
DGX Spark Launched during FY2026; drove Professional Visualization +70% FY2026 10-K
GTC / any conference NOT DISCLOSED in any filing reviewed — no date recorded
Annual meeting of stockholders NOT DISCLOSED in the documents reviewed

Recurring disclosure events, each quarter

These are not "catalysts" in the press-release sense but they are the four numbers that decide the thesis, and each re-prints on a known cadence with the 10-Q or 10-K:

  1. Customer concentration — currently three direct customers at 21% / 17% / 16% of revenue (54%) and 30% / 18% / 16% of receivables (64%). Either series moving materially is thesis-relevant in both directions.
  2. Supply-commitment total — $119bn.
  3. Inventory and its mix — $25,797m, with raw materials +74.6% q/q; plus the excess-purchase-obligation accrual, $3,121m.
  4. Same-quarter DSO — 45.5 days, versus 45.8 a year earlier.

Explicit omissions