OMDA · investment memo
Growth-matched comparator median. Omada's own TTM operating margin is NEGATIVE (-2.9%), so max(own, peer) collapses to the peer median and the basis is stated as 'growth-matched peer median, subject is pre-profit.' Named by the memo as the highest-variance parameter in the model: FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA guidance of $14-20m on $326m is a 4.3-6.1% adjusted-EBITDA margin, and adjusted EBITDA excludes SBC. The screen's 11.3% gives a required CAGR of 17.2%, so the honest statement is a RANGE: 11.8%-17.2%.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $17.03 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored; blocks nothing. Named cause: Cigna renegotiates or does not renew. Partner A and Partner B are both Cigna affiliates and together are 66% of revenue and 64% of receivables. The agreements are non-exclusive by the company's own description. Cigna/Evernorth owns Omada equity through Cigna Ventures and simultaneously operates competing care-management assets. Benefit-planning cycles align with the calendar year, so the whole book re-prices at once each January. Scenario. A single Cigna renewal cycle repricing at, say, 20% lower unit economics — consistent with t