Omada Health [OMDA]
Catalyst Criteria type: MEASURED. Dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own the name.
Rule applied: never fabricate a date. Every entry below is either (a) sourced from a filing or an exchange record, or (b) explicitly marked NOT ANNOUNCED / ESTIMATED with the basis for the estimate stated. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-09 | IPO priced at $19.00, Nasdaq | 424B4 filed 2025-06-09 | Start of the only price history that exists. Anchors the UNIDENTIFIED multiple finding. |
| 2026-01-12 | Preliminary unaudited Q4/FY2025 revenue released ahead of the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference | 8-K filed 2026-01-12, Item 2.02 | Establishes JPM Healthcare as a recurring January disclosure venue for this name. |
| 2026-03-05 | FY2025 results | 8-K filed 2026-03-05, Item 2.02 | FY2025 revenue $260.210m; first operating-profitable quarter (Q4'25, +$3.281m). |
| 2026-03-06 | FY2025 Form 10-K filed | 10-K, period 2025-12-31 | |
| 2026-05-07 | Q1'26 results; FY2026 guidance RAISED to revenue $322–330m (from $312–322m) and adjusted EBITDA $14–20m (from $7–15m) | 8-K filed 2026-05-07, Ex. 99.1 | The single most important dated fact in this file. The guided 25.3% growth is what replaces the screen's 45.6%. |
| 2026-05-08 | Q1'26 Form 10-Q filed | 10-Q, period 2026-03-31 | Source of the concentration, dilution and hardware-margin findings. |
| 2026-06-16 | 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Sean Duffy and Trevor Fetter elected Class I directors (terms to 2029); Deloitte & Touche ratified as auditor for FY2026 | 8-K filed 2026-06-16, Item 5.07; DEF 14A filed 2026-04-28 | Governance; no thesis impact. |
| Window | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Q3–Q4 each year | Benefit-plan selling season. The 10-Q states: "because many benefit-planning cycles align with the calendar year, a concentrated number of employers, health plans, PBMs, or other customers or channel partners may make changes to the programs [and] medications … " | This is where the Cigna renewal risk actually lives. The entire book re-prices for a 1 January effective date. It is the named cause of the downside case and it recurs annually. |
| Each January | New benefit-year enrolment | Drives the Q1 member step-up. Q1'25 delivered +14.6% sequential; Q1'26 delivered only +2.9%. The next January is the direct test of whether that was a one-off. |
| Event | Status | Basis for the estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 results | NOT ANNOUNCED as of 2026-07-28 | Prior-year Q2 was released 2025-08-07 and the 10-Q filed 2025-08-08; Q3'25 released 2025-11-06. Pattern suggests early August 2026, but Omada has not published a date and none is placed in this calendar as fact. |
| Q3'26 results | NOT ANNOUNCED | Prior-year analogue: 2025-11-06. |
| FY2026 results + FY2027 initial guidance | NOT ANNOUNCED | Prior-year analogue: 2026-03-05. FY2027 initial guidance is the highest-value single data point on the horizon — invalidation trigger 3 in OMDA_Trade_Construction.md. |
| 45th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference | NOT ANNOUNCED for OMDA | The conference is customarily held in the second week of January in San Francisco; Omada presented at the 44th in January 2026. Neither the 2027 conference dates nor Omada's participation is confirmed. |
The framework requires named product events with dates. Omada has named these and dated none of them:
| Event | Evidence | Date |
|---|---|---|
| AOM prescribing expansion — "third-party licensed obesity care providers for prescribing anti-obesity medications and related medication management" | 10-Q, MD&A. The fastest-rising term in the mention-frequency series: "prescrib*" from 0.10 → 0.39 per 1,000 words across four filings | No launch, milestone or availability date disclosed. |
| GLP-1 Care Tracks | Named in the business description in every filing | No enrolment, attach-rate or revenue disclosure. No dated milestone. |
| Omada for MSK (Physera VIE) | Named programme | No dated milestone. Mention intensity declining (0.24 → 0.18 per 1k words). |
This is a genuine gap and it is reported as one. OMDA has no dated product catalysts. The Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED and blocks nothing, but a book relying on a product event to re-rate this name inside 12 months has nothing to point at. The re-rating drivers that do have dates are all earnings prints and the annual benefit cycle.
LOGGED — thin. Four confirmed forward-looking dated events would be normal; OMDA offers zero company-confirmed forward dates as of 2026-07-28. The monitoring plan is therefore built on the two structural windows (Q3–Q4 selling season, January enrolment) plus the earnings cadence once announced.
The specific number to watch at the next print, tied directly to the implied-path test: sequential revenue growth, and combined Partner A + Partner B share of revenue.