Omada Health [OMDA]
Every figure is traced to a filed document. $000s unless stated. Sources: 10-K filed 2026-03-06
(FY2025), 10-Q filed 2026-05-08 (Q1'26), 10-Q filed 2025-11-07 (Q3'25), 10-Q filed 2025-08-08 (Q2'25),
8-K/Ex.99.1 filed 2026-05-07 (guidance).
| Quarter | Revenue | Derivation | YoY | Sequential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'24 | 35,095 | H1'24 76,307 − Q2'24 41,212 | — | — |
| Q2'24 | 41,212 | filed | — | +17.4% |
| Q3'24 | 45,515 | filed | — | +10.4% |
| Q4'24 | 47,978 | FY2024 169,800 − 9M'24 121,822 | — | +5.4% |
| Q1'25 | 54,963 | filed | +56.6% | +14.6% |
| Q2'25 | 61,371 | filed | +48.9% | +11.7% |
| Q3'25 | 68,030 | filed | +49.5% | +10.8% |
| Q4'25 | 75,846 | FY2025 260,210 − 9M'25 184,364 | +58.1% | +11.5% |
| Q1'26 | 78,048 | filed | +42.0% | +2.9% |
TTM to 2026-03-31 = 61,371 + 68,030 + 75,846 + 78,048 = 283,295. Matches the screen exactly.
Annual: FY2023 122,784 · FY2024 169,800 (+38.3%) · FY2025 260,210 (+53.2%).
Sequential deceleration is the headline modelling fact. +2.9% in Q1'26 against +14.6% in Q1'25 — same quarter, same benefit-year enrolment cycle, so seasonality is controlled for.
| Q1 | Services | Hardware | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue | 69,594 | 8,454 | 78,048 |
| 2025 revenue | 49,496 | 5,467 | 54,963 |
| YoY | +40.6% | +54.6% | +42.0% |
| 2026 cost of revenue | 14,449 | 14,906 | 29,355 |
| 2025 cost of revenue | 12,744 | 10,319 | 23,063 |
| 2026 gross profit | 55,145 | −6,452 | 48,693 |
| 2026 gross margin | 79.2% | −76.3% | 62.4% |
| 2025 gross margin | 74.3% | −88.8% | 58.0% |
Model the two lines separately or the model is wrong. Hardware is 10.8% of revenue, is the faster grower, and carries a −76% gross margin — connected devices sold at roughly half of cost as an acquisition expense that runs through both revenue and COGS. Blended gross margin therefore understates the software economics and the top-line growth rate is overstated by ~1.4pp.
Services gross margin is the number that matters and it expanded +4.9pp YoY.
Reconciliation to the press release: Omada cites "gross margin of 64%, up from 60%". GAAP is 62.4% / 58.0%. The ~2pp gap is share-based compensation held in cost of revenue and excluded from the non-GAAP measure.
| Period | Revenue | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 122,784 | −65,997 | −53.7% |
| FY2024 | 169,800 | −43,654 | −25.7% |
| FY2025 | 260,210 | −11,972 | −4.6% |
| Q1'25 | 54,963 | −8,396 | −15.3% |
| Q2'25 | 61,371 | −4,344 | −7.1% |
| Q3'25 | 68,030 | −2,513 | −3.7% |
| Q4'25 | 75,846 | +3,281 | +4.3% |
| Q1'26 | 78,048 | −4,781 | −6.1% |
TTM operating income = −4,344 − 2,513 + 3,281 − 4,781 = −8,357, a −2.9% TTM margin (the screen carries
−4.6%, which is the FY2025 figure, not TTM — flagged in OMDA_Valuation.md §2).
Q4'25 is the first operating-profitable quarter in the filed record. Whether it repeats is invalidation trigger 6. The FY24 → FY25 margin change is +21.1pp, comfortably clearing the ~+5pp INFLECTION threshold.
Q1'26 operating expenses: R&D 12,697 (+44.2%) · S&M 26,787 (+32.8%) · G&A 13,990 (+23.6%) · total 53,474 (+32.7%), against revenue +42.0%. Opex is growing more slowly than revenue — the operating leverage is real, not projected.
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-12-31 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 211,765 | 222,036 |
| Accounts receivable, net | 39,985 | 34,585 |
| — of which related party (Cigna) | 25,800 | 22,800 |
| Inventory | 3,831 | 4,486 |
| Total current assets | 269,427 | 272,934 |
| Goodwill | 13,240 | 13,240 |
| Intangibles, net | 1,975 | 2,414 |
| Total assets | 302,798 | 305,406 |
| Accounts payable | 8,100 | 10,276 |
| Accrued expenses | 31,227 | 40,392 |
| Deferred revenue | 29,353 | 25,058 |
| — of which related party (Cigna) | 22,200 | 18,800 |
| Total liabilities | 68,680 | 75,726 |
| Total stockholders' equity | 234,118 | 229,680 |
No debt of any kind. Every liability is current and operational. LongTermDebt was $29,966k at
2025-06-30 and repaid in full with IPO proceeds — $0 from 2025-09-30. Q1'26 interest expense fell to $18k
from $1,074k.
Net cash = +$211,765k, verified.
Goodwill is flat at $13,240k across every reporting date from 2024-12-31 to 2026-03-31. Intangibles decline monotonically on amortisation with no additions. No acquisitions in the growth window — the 45.6% CAGR is 100% organic.
Related-party density: Cigna is 64.5% of receivables and 75.6% of deferred revenue.
| Period | Operating CF | Capex (PP&E) | Software dev |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | −49,738 | 416 | 2,505 |
| FY2024 | −34,179 | 596 | 3,267 |
| FY2025 | +18,252 | 1,322 | 4,510 |
| Q1'25 | −16,118 | 315 | 934 |
| Q1'26 | −11,834 | 78 | 1,479 |
FY2025 turned operating-cash-flow positive. Q1 is seasonally negative in both years (working capital on the January benefit-year reset), improving $4.3m YoY. Capex is de minimis — this is an asset-light model, which is why the terminal-margin assumption, not the capital intensity, dominates the valuation.
Accruals check (retained on both archetypes): FY2025 net loss −12,778 against operating cash flow +18,252. Cash materially exceeds earnings; accruals are strongly negative. Clean — passes.
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
Cover page / dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding |
59,448,507 | 2026-05-05 |
| Balance sheet issued and outstanding | 59,240,000 | 2026-03-31 |
| Weighted average basic, Q1'26 | 58,923,000 | Q1'26 |
| Weighted average basic, FY2025 | 36,639,000 | FY2025 |
EPS cross-check: Q1'26 −2,970 ÷ 58,923 = −$0.0504 vs filed −$0.05 ✅ · FY2025 −12,778 ÷ 36,639 = −$0.3487 vs filed −$0.35 ✅.
Reserved for issuance (Note 6, thousands, 2026-03-31): options 10,093 · RSUs 3,751 · available for grant 4,107 · ESPP 1,706 = 19,657 total, a 33.2% overhang.
Treasury-method dilution at $20.41 with a $7.69 weighted-average option strike: options contribute 6,290k net, RSUs 3,751k → 69,281k diluted, +16.9%. Unrecognised SBC on RSUs alone is $53.6m over 3.8 years, so the count keeps rising.
Modelling instruction: run the valuation on both counts. Basic gives EV/Sales 3.54x; diluted gives 4.24x. The screen uses basic only and therefore understates the multiple by 20%.
Pre-IPO trap, not triggered: us-gaap:CommonStockSharesOutstanding at 2024-12-31 is 8,157,000 —
pre-IPO common only, excluding 118,218,801 preferred shares held in temporary equity, reverse-split
adjusted. Using it would give a count 7.29x too low. The scanner correctly used the current dei cover
value. All pre-June-2025 per-share data is restated for the 1-for-3 reverse split (118,218,801 preferred →
39,406,221 common).
| Assumption | Value | Source / status |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 revenue | $322–330m, mid $326m (+25.3%) | Company guidance, 8-K 2026-05-07. Raised from $312–322m. |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA | $14–20m (4.3–6.1% margin) | Company guidance, same. Raised from $7–15m. |
| Implied Q2–Q4'26 growth | +20.8% | Derived: ($326m − $78.048m) ÷ ($260.210m − $54.963m) |
| FY2027 revenue growth | 18% / 22% / 28% scenarios | NOT GUIDED. Modelled as a range; no point estimate asserted. |
| Terminal operating margin | 14.3% | Growth-matched peer median, n=155. Subject is pre-profit so max(own, peer) collapses to peer. Highest-variance parameter in the model. |
| Exit multiple | 22.8x EBIT | GROWTH_MATCHED, n=155, ±50% growth band |
| WACC | 10.0% | Framework standard |
| Street consensus | NOT RETRIEVED | Alpha Vantage quota exhausted. Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE; blocks nothing. |
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q1'25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total members enrolled | >1,025,000 | ~679,000 (implied) | +51% |
| Revenue | $78.048m | $54.963m | +42.0% |
| Implied revenue per member | — | — | ≈ −6% |
The 10-Q attributes the services increase partly offset by "a $3.8 million aggregate decrease in average fees per member" and hardware growth to "a 51% increase in total members". Members crossed one million for the first time in Q1'26.
All growth is volume; unit price is falling. Any model that assumes pricing power on this name contradicts the filing.