Phase Space AI

Ondas

ONDS · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
Required CAGR
77.4%
Demonstrated
Terminal margin
Exit multiple
Company state
D
Terminal margin basis

UNIDENTIFIED, declared in the memo (sec 2). Ondas has never earned an operating profit in any period in its filed history. The screen assigned 9.1%, described as 'industry median of mature profitable peers (pre-profit subject)' - the same construction that produced the +51pp error on ADMA and the +32pp error on INOD - and the memo rejects it. A grid across 10%/15%/20% is published in place of a point estimate. For a 15% terminal EBIT margin, total operating expense must fall from 134% of revenue to 34%, a 100-percentage-point reduction; G&A alone is 86% of revenue.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price
$5.10

A daily close below $5.10 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: a roll-up whose currency stops working. Detail in ONDS_Trade_Construction.md §4.

Documents

ONDS Catalyst Calendar ONDS Financial Model Notes ONDS Research ONDS Trade Construction ONDS Valuation