Ondas [ONDS]
as of 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED — blocks nothing, informs monitoring
No date here is invented. Where Ondas has not announced a date, the entry says so and gives the prior-year analogue from the filing record, labelled as an analogue. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Registrant renamed Ondas Inc. (from Ondas Holdings Inc.) | SEC formerNames, CIK 0001646188 |
Cosmetic, but it dates the restructuring |
| Jan 2026 | ~$1.0 billion gross equity raise — common stock plus 2026 Pre-Funded Warrants (41,790,274 shares) and 2026 Common Warrants struck at $28.00 | FY2025 10-K, subsequent events | The origin of most of the $1,058,990k warrant liability |
| 2026-03-16 / 03-17 | Acquisitions completed (8-Ks, Item 2.01), incl. Indo Earth Moving consolidated as a VIE | 8-Ks 2026-03-16, 2026-03-17 | Indo produced a $46.2m loss expensed on acquisition |
| 2026-03-25 / 03-30 | FY2025 results 8-K; FY2025 10-K filed | 8-K 2026-03-25; 10-K 2026-03-30 | |
| 2026-04-01 | World View Enterprises acquisition completed | 8-K 2026-04-01, Items 2.01/3.02 | Stratospheric balloons. A $10m convertible promissory note in World View had been purchased beforehand |
| 2026-04-24 / 05-21 | Further acquisitions completed | 8-Ks, Item 2.01 | |
| 2026-05-14 / 05-15 | Q1-2026 results 8-K; Q1-2026 10-Q filed | 8-K 2026-05-14; 10-Q 2026-05-15 | The source of every verified figure in this memo |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026 annual meeting (Items 5.02, 5.07) | 8-K 2026-05-28 | |
| 2026-07-02 | High Point acquired — ~$200m cash + 39,999,998 shares at closing + 44,999,998 shares deliverable 2027-01-04 | 8-K filed 2026-07-06, Items 1.01/2.01/3.02/7.01/8.01 | The largest single dilution event on this name and it postdates every screen input. Revenue not disclosed |
| 2026-07-24 | Rule 424(b)(7) resale prospectus supplement for 2,583 World View acquisition shares | 8-K 2026-07-24, Items 3.02/8.01 | Representative of the weekly Item 3.02 cadence |
| Date | Event | Basis | What to read |
|---|---|---|---|
| on or about 2026-09-14 | High Point acquisition financial statements, by amendment to the 2026-07-06 8-K | Rule 3-05 requires audited financial statements and pro-forma information for a significant acquisition by amendment within 71 calendar days of the initial report's due date | The single most informative dated event on this name. It is the first sight of what $200m of cash and 85.0m shares bought. It will move TTM revenue, every multiple in ONDS_Valuation.md, and the organic-revenue estimate simultaneously. If High Point is large, the multiples in this memo are overstated; if it is small, the dilution has no revenue behind it |
| 2027-01-02 | VWAP test for the High Point lock-up extension. The average of the thirty daily VWAPs over the thirty consecutive trading days immediately preceding this date is measured against $20.00 | Registration Rights and Lock-Up Agreement, per 8-K 2026-07-06 | Spot is $6.80 — 194% below the threshold. Treat the test as failing and the full tranche as unlocking |
| 2027-01-04 | 44,999,998 High Point Locked-Up Shares deliverable | same agreement | +8.4% share count on one date. Sellers are capped at 10% of daily trading volume per day, which at $815m of daily turnover is not a binding constraint |
| Expected window | Event | Prior-year analogue (fact) | What to read |
|---|---|---|---|
| mid-August 2026 | Q2-2026 results (8-K then 10-Q) | Q2-2025: 10-Q filed 2025-08-12. Q3-2025: 10-Q 2025-11-13. Q1-2026: 8-K 2026-05-14, 10-Q 2026-05-15 | Four things: (1) the warrant-liability remeasurement — the stock fell 24.8% in the quarter, so expect another large non-operating gain and a positive EPS that means nothing (ONDS_Valuation.md §6.3); (2) operating loss in absolute dollars — did it widen again from $(42.7)m?; (3) whether the 49.2% gross margin survived a quarter with more integration; (4) any organic/acquired revenue disaggregation, which is the one disclosure that would make the Quality Criteria scorable |
| November 2026 | Q3-2026 results | Q3-2025 10-Q 2025-11-13 | First quarter to include High Point in full |
| ~March 2027 | FY2026 results and 10-K | FY2025: 8-K 2026-03-25, 10-K 2026-03-30 | The first audited year end covering the roll-up. Final purchase-price allocations on twelve acquisitions; the first genuine impairment test of $694m of goodwill and intangibles |
| Item | Status | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly Item 3.02 8-Ks | Ongoing, roughly weekly since March 2026 | These are Rule 424(b)(7) resale registrations for acquisition consideration shares, not new capital raises — a distinction worth holding, since the cadence looks alarming and is largely mechanical. They do nonetheless mark the point at which vendor shares become sellable |
S-3ASR File No. 333-290121 |
Effective, unlimited automatic shelf | Any new 424B5 |
| $128.1m accrued purchase and contingent consideration | $39.6m current, $88.5m non-current | Cash or share settlement; the Sentrycs consideration is payable across four dates |
| SPO put option | Shamir may put SPO shares at ~$220.69 per SPO share | Exercise window disclosed in the 10-Q |
| SPO convertible capital notes (49% NCI portion) | Non-interest-bearing, no stated maturity, convertible into SPO common at the Company's discretion after a five-year minimum holding period | A liability with no settlement date. Worth watching for reclassification |
| 2026 Common Warrants | Struck at $28.00 against a $6.80 spot | Will not be exercised. The $1.06bn liability unwinds through income as gains, providing zero cash |
| Authorised share count | 800,000,000 against 886.4m fully diluted | A further authorised-share increase is arithmetically required before all outstanding claims can be settled in stock. Watch the 2027 proxy |
| Segment reporting | Collapsed to one segment in Q1-2026 | Any restoration of segment detail |
RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation. What the 10-K offers instead is a
"sales pipeline", which is not backlog and is not claimed to be. There is therefore no contracted catalyst
on this name.Catalyst Criteria assessment: unusually well dated, and every date is a financing or accounting event. Three hard dates sit ahead (~2026-09-14 High Point financials, 2027-01-02 VWAP test, 2027-01-04 share delivery) plus a quarterly print. Not one of them is a product event, a contract award or a delivery milestone — because none is disclosed. For a defence-technology company that is itself the finding: the calendar is made of paper, not hardware.