ORCL · investment memo
BUILT through the FY2026 opex bridge from EDGAR 10-K primary lines: 58.0 gross - 10.5 R&D - 13.5 S&M - 2.0 G&A - 1.5 intangible amortisation - 0.5 restructuring = 30.0. Constraint 30.0 <= 58.0 satisfied, 28.0pp headroom.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $98.52 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: non-performance by one of the three counterparties that signed ~half the RPO book in Q1 FY2026 — a mechanism written into Oracle's own risk factors and quantified in §5. Quantified: clean GAAP EPS held flat at $4.93 (the mechanism stalls rather than reverses) on Oracle's own six-year P/E p10 of 18.45x → $91, −22.8%. On the six-year minimum of 16.84x → $83, −29.6%. Is it a going-concern case? No, and that is argued. Interest coverage ~4.5x on FY26 interest of $4,599m against a 3.0x covenant; $31.9bn of liquid assets; the $75bn prepaid/customer-supplied hardware means a meaningful s