OUST · investment memo
Central cell of the published 5%/10%/15%/20%/25%/30% grid. The memo bounds the defensible region at 5%-20%: 'any terminal EBIT margin above ~30% requires the gross margin to exceed 45% and operating expenses to fall below 13% of revenue from today's 82%', so the 25% and 30% rows are arithmetic, not forecasts.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $23.48 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: ASP compression in digital lidar as Chinese volume suppliers price into the industrial and automotive channel, with no contracted backlog to cushion it. Detail and probabilities in OUST_Trade_Construction.md §4. Not a going-concern case — $355m of net cash against a $42m burn.