Ouster [OUST]
as of 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED — blocks nothing, informs monitoring
No date in this calendar is invented. Where Ouster has not announced a date, the entry says so and gives the prior-year analogue from the filing record, labelled as an analogue. Per the brief, a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | ✅ Occurred. Stockholders approved, and Delaware accepted, an increase in authorised common stock from 100,000,000 to 200,000,000 shares | 8-K filed 2026-06-18, Items 5.03 / 5.07; proposal 4 on the DEF 14A of 2026-04-28 | Created headroom for ~2x the current share count. Preceded the July offering by 15 days |
| 2026-07-02 | ✅ Occurred. Automatic shelf registration Form S-3ASR filed; 424B5 for an underwritten offering | S-3ASR and 424B5, both 2026-07-02 | Unlimited, immediately effective shelf capacity |
| 2026-07-06 | ✅ Occurred. Sale of 3,621,876 shares completed; net proceeds $191.9m; underwriter Northland Securities | 8-K filed 2026-07-06 | Share count ≥67,294,825. Implied gross price ~$55; spot is now $31.30 |
| ≈2026-08-01 | Over-allotment option expires. 30-day option from the 2026-07-02 underwriting agreement for up to 543,281 additional shares | Underwriting agreement per 8-K 2026-07-06 and 424B5 | If exercised, +$29m of proceeds and +0.8% shares. No 8-K reporting exercise had been filed as of 2026-07-29. Monitor |
| Expected window | Event | Prior-year analogue (fact) | What to read |
|---|---|---|---|
| early-to-mid August 2026 | Q2-2026 results (8-K Item 2.02, then 10-Q) | Q2-2025: results 8-K 2025-08-07, 10-Q 2025-08-11. Q3-2025: 8-K 2025-11-04, 10-Q 2025-11-05. Q1-2026: 8-K 2026-05-05, 10-Q 2026-05-05 | The single most important print for this memo. Three things: (1) gross margin — does it recover above 46% clean, or has ASP compression taken hold? Q1-2026 was 42.9%; (2) ATM usage since 2026-05-08 — the first disclosure of how much of the $100m programme was sold, which sets the true share count; (3) any second royalty catch-up — a recurrence would refute the "one-off" reading in OUST_Research.md §0 |
| November 2026 | Q3-2026 results | Q3-2025: 8-K 2025-11-04 | Second consecutive clean-margin datapoint |
| late February / early March 2027 | FY2026 results and 10-K | FY2025: 8-K 2026-03-02, 10-K 2026-03-02. FY2024: 10-K 2025-03-21 | Full-year clean growth rate; new concentration table (does Customer A stay at ~42% of receivables for a third year?) |
| Q2 2027 | 2027 annual meeting | 2026 annual meeting held 2026-06-17 | Watch for any further authorised-share increase |
| Item | Status | Trigger to watch |
|---|---|---|
| $100m at-the-market programme | Live since 2026-05-08 (424B5). Usage undisclosed | Disclosed in the Q2-2026 10-Q. Illustrated in the prospectus at 4,079,967 shares |
| S-3ASR capacity | Unlimited, effective 2026-07-02 | Any new 424B5 |
| Amazon warrant | Up to 3,263,898 shares, assumed in the Velodyne merger; vests on Amazon purchases and is charged as a reduction of revenue | Any step-up in the warrant charge implies Amazon volume — a positive on demand and a negative on reported revenue simultaneously |
| Stereolabs earn-out / retention shares | Key-employee share awards treated as post-combination compensation; $36.2m of total unvested RSU expense across the company, 1.7-year weighted average | Quarterly SBC line |
| Customer A receivable concentration | 42% of AR at 2025-12-31 (39% at 2024-12-31) at ~11% of revenue | Next concentration table, FY2026 10-K |
| Inventory | $16.4m → $23.6m → $29.9m over five quarters (+82% vs TTM revenue +67%) | Q2-2026 balance sheet. A third consecutive build against slowing revenue is a demand signal |
RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation concept. There is therefore no contracted
catalyst on this name — nothing dated that converts pipeline into revenue.Catalyst Criteria assessment: adequate for a long, thin in kind. There is one high-information dated event
inside three weeks (Q2-2026 results) that directly tests the memo's central objection. Per criteria.md, time
works for a long, so a dated event is not required — but note that every catalyst here is an earnings print or
a financing action. None is a product or programme event, because none is disclosed.