Catalyst Calendar

Palo Alto Networks [PANW]

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. [PANW] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED.

No date below is invented. Estimates are derived from PANW's own filing cadence and marked as estimates with the derivation shown.

1. The dated event that carries this name

Date	Event	Why it dominates
Q3 FY2027 — quarter ending 2027-04-30, reported ~early Jun 2027	The CyberArk / Chronosphere anniversary. Both acquisitions consolidated from ~February 2026, so Q3 FY2027 is the first quarter in which the prior-year base already contains them.	Reported revenue growth converges to organic — roughly 14% — printed by a company trading at 23.6x sales. This is the Downside Criteria scenario and it is unusual in having a date. Nothing needs to go wrong operationally; the bear case is the arithmetic of the anniversary arriving. Probability assigned: 45%.

2. Estimated from filing cadence

PANW has reported Q3 in the first days of June and filed the 10-Q the next day (Q3 FY26: 8-K 2026-06-02, 10-Q 2026-06-03). Q4/FY lands in mid-to-late August, Q1 in mid-November, Q2 in mid-February.

Estimated date	Event	What it tests	Derivation
~late Aug 2026	Q4 FY2026 results and first FY2027 guidance (quarter ended 2026-07-31)	Guided: revenue $3,345–3,355m (+32%), non-GAAP EPS $0.96–0.98 on 830–840m diluted shares. FY26 guided at $11,415–11,425m (+24%), non-GAAP operating margin 28.9–29.2%, adjusted FCF margin 37.5%. Tests: (i) whether gross margin recovers from 67.6% as purchased-intangible amortisation is lapped; (ii) whether GAAP operating income returns to positive; (iii) the first FY27 organic growth guide; (iv) whether the diluted count exceeds 840m. The company guides only non-GAAP and provides no GAAP reconciliation, so a GAAP figure will only appear in the filed statements.	Q4 FY25 10-K filed ~2025-08-18 (dei cover 2025-08-18); Q4 FY24 late Aug.
~mid-Nov 2026	Q1 FY2027 results (quarter ends 2026-10-31)	Second quarter with a full period of both acquisitions in the current-year base but not the prior-year base — reported growth still flattered by ~15pp. Organic decomposition still requires the company's disclosure of the acquisition contribution, which it has provided each quarter so far.	Q1 FY26 10-Q filed 2025-11-20.
~mid-Feb 2027	Q2 FY2027 results (quarter ends 2027-01-31)	The last quarter before the anniversary. Final print at flattered reported growth.	Q2 FY26 10-Q filed 2026-02-18.
~early Jun 2027	Q3 FY2027 results — THE ANNIVERSARY	See §1.	Q3 FY26 10-Q filed 2026-06-03.
FY2028 (year ending 2028-07-31)	The 40% adjusted free-cash-flow margin target	CFO Dipak Golechha, verbatim: "keeps us firmly on track to achieve 40% adjusted free cash flow margin in FY28." Trailing twelve-month adjusted FCF margin is 38.5%, up 430bp. This is a company-set, dated, falsifiable commitment and the strongest item in PANW's favour.	Company-stated in the Q3 FY26 release

3. Undated but live

Event	What it tests	Status
A buyback authorisation	PANW repurchased $0 in FY2025 against $1,295m of SBC — coverage 0.00x — while the share count rose 21.8% to 815m. Any authorisation covering SBC would be a genuine change in capital policy.	Not announced. Do not model.
PANW disclosing an AI revenue or ARR figure	Currently zero dollars are attributed to AI, while the release leads with AI narrative ("securing AI deployments at scale," "the AI frontier"). NGS ARR is a cloud/subscription aggregate that predates the AI cycle and is not an AI metric.	No commitment.
PANW beginning to guide GAAP	The company states it "does not provide guidance on GAAP operating margin, GAAP net income (loss) or net cash from operating activities" and offers no reconciliation. A GAAP guide would be a material improvement in disclosure.	No commitment
Organic NGS ARR after the anniversary	Organic NGS ARR is +28.4% — genuinely strong and materially faster than organic revenue at 14.2%. Whether CyberArk cross-sell shows up as organic NGS ARR acceleration post-anniversary is the real bull test.	Disclosed quarterly with the acquisition split
Further M&A	$23.9bn of purchase accounting in nine months, funded with $19.3bn of newly issued equity. Nothing further is announced.	Not announced — do not model
Gross margin recovery	67.6%, down 5.4pp, driven by cost of subscription revenue +55.8% against subscription revenue +31.2%. Recovery depends on the amortisation schedule for $7,283m of intangibles, which the 10-Q discloses but I have not modelled quarter by quarter.	Quarterly

4. What is deliberately absent

No Ignite conference date. PANW holds an annual customer conference that is a product-launch venue. No 2026 or 2027 date appears in any filing I read, so no date is given. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
No analyst-day date. Not announced in the filings read.
No consensus-revision calendar. Alpha Vantage's shared 25/day quota is exhausted; Consensus Criteria is INDETERMINATE and blocks nothing. Company guidance is used and labelled — with the standing caveat that PANW guides only non-GAAP.
No FY2027 revenue guidance figure. It does not exist yet. The NTM revenue of $14,500m used in the 12-month work is built from the Q4 FY26 guide annualised, with the arithmetic shown in Valuation §4c.
No borrow, short-interest or days-to-cover data, despite the Short Mechanism Criteria triggering on both legs. criteria.md excludes them from the Liquidity Criteria on a long-only book, and I will not assert a short is executable without pulling them.
No put-chain data. Only calls were pulled. A downside expression would require a separate pull, and I do not propose structures on unpulled data.

Generated from each name's analysis.json. Figures are research output, not investment advice. Gaps are shown as “—” rather than filled: a missing input is recorded as indeterminate, never estimated.