Paycom Software [PAYC]
Built 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, and it blocks nothing.
No date in this calendar is invented. Where a date is not confirmed by a company filing or a company press release, it is labelled EXPECTED with the historical filing pattern that supports it, or it is omitted entirely. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Board authorised a new $2.0bn share repurchase plan (25% of today's market cap). No stated expiration. | 10-Q Subsequent Events, acc. 0001193125-26-211926 | The single most evidenced value mechanism on the name. Execution pace is the swing factor in the 12-month target (§1.6 of the valuation). |
| 2026-04-23 | Revolver principal outstanding ≈ $675.0m, drawn to fund repurchases | 10-Q Subsequent Events; 8-K 2026-04-23 (items 1.01, 2.03) | Confirms the balance sheet turned net-debt. Any further draw is disclosed here. |
| 2026-03-12 | Repurchase authorisation replenished to $750.0m available at 2026-03-31 (superseded 2026-05-04) | 10-Q | |
| 2026-07-08 | Board expanded from six to eight directors; Craig E. Boelte (CFO 2006–Feb 2025) and William Kerber (CIO 2007–2017) appointed; Kerber to the audit committee | 8-K filed 2026-07-09, item 5.02 | Two former insiders returning to the board eight months after the CFO's retirement. Governance signal; not a numbers event. |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026 annual meeting held (voting results) | 8-K filed 2026-05-07, item 5.07 | Next annual meeting therefore ≈ May 2027. |
| ongoing | Quarterly cash dividend of $0.375/share declared in each of the last five quarters (Q1'25 through Q1'26) | 10-K / 10-Q dividend disclosures | ~$71m/yr at 47.6m shares. A dividend increase would be a capital-allocation signal; none announced. |
| Window | Event | Basis for the window | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| First week of August 2026 | Q2 FY2026 results (a third-party earnings calendar shows 2026-08-05; no 8-K or company release confirms this and it is not treated as confirmed) | Q2 10-Qs filed 2024-08-01 and 2025-08-07; Q2 8-K earnings release 2025-08-06 | The single highest-information event inside the target window. Three things: (1) ex-float recurring & other growth — the invalidation threshold is 7.5%, the run-rate is 8.8%; (2) interest on funds held for clients — Q2'25 was $28.5m, and this is the first quarter the float comparison should stop being a headwind; (3) repurchase execution against the $2.0bn plan and the resulting revolver balance. |
| Late October / early November 2026 | Q3 FY2026 results | Q3 10-Qs filed 2024-10-31 and 2025-11-06 | Third consecutive read on the deceleration. Note the 2023 break happened on the Q3 print. |
| Mid-February 2027 | Q4 / FY2026 results and the FY2027 revenue guide | 10-Ks filed 2025-02-20 and 2026-02-19 | The FY2027 guide is the event that sets the 12-month multiple. Also the only place the annual revenue retention rate is disclosed (91% FY2025, 90% FY2024) — it is an annual figure and appears nowhere else. |
| Item | Why | How it would surface |
|---|---|---|
| The front end of the yield curve | ~5.3% of revenue and ~18.6% of operating income is interest on $2.7bn of average client float, earned at ~4.19% in FY2025 against a 3-month UST at 3.90% (2026-07-28, up from 3.63% on 2026-01-02). Rate cuts cut revenue directly and at ~100% margin. | FOMC decisions. The 2026 FOMC meeting calendar was not verified in this run and no dates are listed rather than guessed. |
| IWant adoption | The FY2025 10-K introduces IWant, the current named product mechanism, with 4 mentions and no adoption metric, no pricing and no revenue disclosure. AI mentions in the 10-K went 20 → 49 in one year while Beti went 9 → 5. | The first quantified IWant disclosure, on any call or in any filing, is a genuine information event — in either direction. |
| Any repeat of the 2023 cannibalisation language | On 2023-11-01 PAYC fell 38.51% in one session on management attributing a shortfall to its own automation. The word "cannibaliz" has never* appeared in any of the seven 10-Ks FY2019–FY2025 — the concept lives only on the call. | Earnings call commentary, not filings. |
| Deferred contract cost life | $1,036.9m capitalised (≈50% of annual revenue) amortised over an assumed 10-year client life, against a 91% annual revenue retention rate. | Accounting policies note in any 10-K/10-Q. |
| The unexplained 22.5% five-day move | 2026-07-22 $139.30 → 2026-07-29 $170.67, with PCTY +21.1%, ADP +14.3%, WDAY +25.4% and SPY −1.6%. No 8-K since 2026-07-09; no earnings. | If a cause emerges (sector data, a large allocator, an M&A report) it changes the entry read materially. None is asserted here. |
Scored, not blocking. On a long, time works for the position, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder. PAYC nonetheless has a dense, near-term, high-information calendar: a quarterly print roughly one week away that directly tests the single invalidation threshold (ex-float recurring growth below 7.5%), and an annual print that is the only source of the retention-rate disclosure. The cheapest possible resolution of the current entry problem is to wait one week.