Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Paycom Software [PAYC]

Paycom Software, Inc. [PAYC] — Financial Model Notes

Every figure below is derived from SEC XBRL companyfacts (CIK 0001590955) or from the primary document of a named filing. Nothing is taken from the screen. Nothing is estimated where a filed figure exists.

Filings used, with recency asserted:

Filing Accession Filed Age at 2026-07-29
10-Q, Q1 FY2026 (period 2026-03-31) 0001193125-26-211926 2026-05-07 83 days — current
10-K, FY2025 (period 2025-12-31) 0001193125-26-059372 2026-02-19 160 days
10-Q, Q3 FY2025 0001193125-25-269543 2025-11-06
10-K, FY2024 0000950170-25-024136 2025-02-20 (source of the FY2022 float split)
8-K 0001193125-26-299695 2026-07-09 most recent filing of any kind
Paylocity 10-K, FY2025 0001591698-25-000087 2025-08-06 (peer cross-check only)

1. Quarterly revenue and profit — the base series

All values $m. Q4 derived by subtraction (FY less 9M) where the quarter is not separately tagged; that derivation is checked to sum exactly to the filed annual figure in every year.

Quarter Revenue Operating income Net income
2022-03-31 353.5 126.3 91.9
2022-06-30 316.9 72.3 57.4
2022-09-30 334.2 74.3 52.2
2022-12-31 370.6 105.9 80.0
2023-03-31 451.6 160.4 119.3
2023-06-30 401.1 87.3 64.5
2023-09-30 406.3 96.9 75.2
2023-12-31 434.6 106.7 81.8
2024-03-31 499.9 285.8 247.2
2024-06-30 437.5 95.1 68.0
2024-09-30 451.9 104.9 73.3
2024-12-31 493.9 148.5 113.6
2025-03-31 530.5 185.1 139.4
2025-06-30 483.6 112.3 89.5
2025-09-30 493.3 112.6 110.7
2025-12-31 544.3 157.1 113.8
2026-03-31 571.9 210.2 155.7

Q1 is structurally the peak quarter (W-2 / year-end tax form filings). Any sequential read that ignores this is wrong: Q1'26 revenue of $571.9m is +5.1% on Q4'25, but +7.8% on Q1'25, and only the year-on-year comparison is meaningful.

TTM (Q2 FY2025 → Q1 FY2026):

$m
Revenue 2,093.0
— recurring & other 1,982.7
— interest on funds held for clients 110.3
Operating income 592.3 (28.30%)
Operating income ex-float 482.0 (24.31% of ex-float revenue)
Net income 469.7
Operating cash flow 710.2
Capital expenditure 264.4
Free cash flow 445.8 (21.3% of revenue)
FCF less SBC ~327 (15.6% of revenue)

2. Revenue disaggregation — the float split

FY Recurring & other Interest on funds held for clients Total Float % Recurring growth Total growth
2022 1,342.5 32.7 1,375.2 2.38% +30.29%
2023 1,585.7 108.0 1,693.7 6.38% +18.12% +23.16%
2024 1,758.3 124.9 1,883.2 6.63% +10.89% +11.19%
2025 1,938.7 113.0 2,051.7 5.51% +10.26% +8.95%
Q1'26 544.0 27.8 571.9 4.86% +8.80% +7.80%

Quarterly float income: $30.5m (Q1'25), $28.5m (Q2'25), $26.8m (Q3'25), $27.2m (Q4'25), $27.8m (Q1'26). Trough Q3 2025; up two quarters since.

Average daily client-fund balance: $2.7bn (FY2025), $2.4bn (FY2024) — MD&A. Implied FY2025 yield 4.19%. Balance-sheet funds held for clients swings enormously with the calendar ($5,137.0m at 2025-12-31 vs $2,624.6m at 2026-03-31) — the point-in-time balance is not the earning asset; the average daily balance is, and only the average is disclosed, annually.

Modelling rule adopted: float income is projected separately from recurring revenue, at a flat ~$28.4m/quarter, with no growth assumption embedded in the software line. It is capitalised at 10x (not the 15x used for the software) in the ex-float valuation run, because it carries no growth, no operating leverage and no pricing power.


3. Cost structure and the FY2024 distortion

$m FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Cost of revenue — operating expenses 223.7 267.4 263.0
Cost of revenue — D&A 52.6 67.2 82.4
Total cost of revenue 276.3 334.6 345.4
Gross profit 1,417.4 1,548.6 1,706.3
Gross margin 83.7% 82.2% 83.2%
Sales & marketing 417.6 434.4 482.8
Research & development (expensed) 199.0 242.6 283.4
General & administrative 288.1 158.6 279.0
Administrative D&A 61.4 78.7 93.9
Operating income 451.3 634.3 567.2
Operating margin (reported) 26.65% 33.68% 27.65%
Operating margin (adjusted) 26.65% 27.44% 27.65%

The single adjustment, and it is the largest number in the model:

FY2025 10-K, MD&A: "general and administrative expenses increased $120.4 million from the prior year primarily due to a $117.5 million reversal of previously recognized stock-based compensation expense related to the forfeiture of a restricted stock award upon Chad Richison's transition to Co-Chief Executive Officer in February 2024."

Non-cash SBC by year: FY2024 = −$22.9m (a net credit), FY2025 = +$118.7m. FY2025 split: operating expenses $15.7m, S&M $28.8m, R&D $34.7m, G&A $39.5m.

Consequences that must be carried into any model: 1. FY2024 operating income of $634.3m is overstated by $117.5m. Adjusted: $516.8m, 27.44%. 2. Reported FY2025 operating income fell 10.6%. Adjusted, it rose 9.8% — in line with revenue. 3. The screen's 27.6% terminal margin is right, and it is right for the wrong reason — it happens to equal FY2025 GAAP, which happens to equal the four-year adjusted mean (27.55 / 26.65 / 27.44 / 27.65 / 28.30). Any model anchored on the reported FY2024 33.7% builds ~6pp of phantom margin into terminal value. 4. SBC at 5.8% of revenue is added back in Paycom's own non-GAAP measures. FCF less SBC is $327m, not $446m — a 26% haircut, and the number a valuation should use.

Capitalised R&D. $152.9m capitalised in FY2025 (FY2024: $125.7m) against $283.4m expensed — total R&D $436.3m, +18% YoY against +8.8% revenue growth, with 35% of the spend capitalised. This flows through capex, so EBITDA materially overstates economics on this name and is not used anywhere in this memo. FCF (which charges capex) is used throughout.


4. Balance sheet — the item the screen missed

$m 2025-12-31 2026-03-31 Change
Cash & equivalents 370.0 153.9 −216.1
Long-term debt 0.0 675.0 +675.0
Net cash / (net debt) +370.0 −521.1 −891.1
Funds held for clients 5,137.0 2,624.6 (offset by client funds obligation 2,624.7 — never in EV)
Treasury stock, at cost 1,403.4 2,469.4 +1,066.0
Treasury shares 8.8m 17.1m +8.3m
Shares outstanding 54.8m 46.6m −8.2m (−15.0%)
Total stockholders' equity 1,731.5 811.7 −919.8
Deferred contract costs (current + LT) 1,017.0 1,036.9

Implied average repurchase price in Q1 FY2026: $1,066.0m ÷ 8.3m = ~$128.4/share, against $170.67 today. Cash repurchases in the quarter were $1,054.3m — versus $325.5m in all of FY2025 and $122.8m in all of FY2024.

Cover-page share counts (the authoritative outstanding series): 57,264,718 (2025-02-11) → 57,819,755 (2025-04-29) → 57,876,797 (2025-07-29) → 56,269,005 (2025-10-28) → 54,275,097 (2026-02-10) → 47,631,450 (2026-04-28).

Credit Agreement terms that constrain the buyback (10-Q Note 6): revolver with JPMorgan as administrative agent; pricing grid 1.00%–2.00% over the benchmark by leverage; commitment fee 0.20%–0.25%; maintenance covenants at 3.0x / 3.5x consolidated leverage; Restricted Payments (dividends and repurchases) permitted above $50.0m/year only if pro-forma consolidated leverage is below 3.0x. At ~$770m TTM EBITDA, the 3.0x test allows roughly $2.3bn of debt — so the $2.0bn authorisation is financeable, but not without materially changing the capital structure.


5. Returns and quality

Metric Value Working
ROIC ~22.7% NOPAT $450m (TTM EBIT $592.3m × 0.76) ÷ invested capital ~$1,982m (total assets $4,821.8m − funds held for clients $2,624.6m − non-debt current liabilities $214.8m)
WACC 9.10% built in PAYC_Valuation.md §1.2
ROIC − WACC +13.6pp
Gross margin 83.2%
Accruals strongly negative OCF $710.2m vs NI $469.7m — cash exceeds earnings by 51%
DSO 8.9 days AR $51.3m ÷ ($2,093.0m / 365)
Goodwill $51.9m, unchanged across 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31, 2026-03-31 confirms 100% organic growth — no acquisitions in the window
Annual revenue retention rate 91% (FY2025), 90% (FY2024) gross, excludes upsell; not NRR
Clients ~39,200 FY2025 10-K

The quality question that is not resolved. Total R&D spend rose 18% and capex rose 40% in FY2025 to deliver 8.8% revenue growth. ROIC on the installed base is excellent (22.7%); ROIC on incremental capital is visibly falling and cannot be computed precisely from the disclosure. This is the Quality Criteria's own warning — "a compounder that cannot reinvest is a bond and should be valued as one" — approaching from a distance, not yet arrived.


6. Reconciliation to the screen

Screen input Screen This model Cause of the difference
Net cash implied ≥ 0 −$521.1m Revolver drawn 2026-Q1; screen's balance sheet is one quarter stale
EV/Sales 3.9x 4.16x net debt + a moved share price
Terminal margin 27.6% 27.6% ✓ agrees — but it is a trailing margin adopted as terminal
Demonstrated CAGR 14.3% 8.80% screen's window straddles the 2023-11-01 break and includes +1.21pp/yr of float income
Required CAGR 1.8% 9.22% screen's implied exit multiple is 21.3x EBIT (p64 of PAYC's own post-break range); this model uses 15.0x (p27)
Margin +12.5pp −0.42pp both of the above

No screen number was silently adopted and no screen number was silently discarded. Every one is reported with its delta.