Paylocity Holding Corporation [PCTY]
As of 2026-07-29. Every date below is either confirmed against a primary or company source, or is explicitly labelled as an inference from the company's own filing pattern. Nothing is fabricated; where a date is unknown it says so.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 4 Aug 2026, 4:00pm CT | Q4 FY2026 results + first FY2027 guidance. Fiscal year ended 30 June 2026. | Company press release, 14 July 2026 (GlobeNewswire) | The dominant event. First FY27 revenue and Adjusted-EBITDA guidance, and the first FY27 view on interest income on funds held for clients. Q4 FY26 was guided to +9–10% recurring / +7–8% total — the slowest on record. Stock enters this print +39% in five weeks and at the 100th percentile of its post-February-2026 EV/EBIT range. |
| 10 June 2026 (occurred) | Paylocity Retirement launched — embedded 401(k)/403(b) plan administration powered by Vestwell, run natively off the payroll engine. | Company press release, investors.paylocity.com | The highest-value new attach in years: a per-participant fee on a base already billed monthly. No adoption, pricing or revenue figure disclosed. First disclosure opportunity is 4 August. |
| April 2026 (occurred) | Grayscale Labs, Inc. acquisition completed — AI-powered recruiting automation. | Q3 FY26 earnings release, 7 May 2026 | Second acquisition in eighteen months. Consideration not disclosed in the Q3 10-Q; closed after the 31 March balance sheet date, so nothing is in the reported figures. |
| April 2026 (occurred) | Board approved a $1.0bn increase to the repurchase authorisation. $1.35bn available as of 7 May 2026. | Q3 FY26 earnings release, 7 May 2026 | Buyback ran at $350m in the first nine months of FY26 — 3.0× SBC + related payroll tax, and shares fell 3.3% over the period. The pace of continued repurchase is a direct EPS driver and a capital-allocation signal. |
| 7 May 2026 (occurred) | Q3 FY2026 results; FY26 guidance raised. | 8-K / 10-Q | Recurring +11.6%, total +10.5%. Interest income −3% YoY. |
These are not confirmed. They are stated because the pattern is tight and consistent, and the label is part of the entry.
| Approximate date | Event | Basis for the inference |
|---|---|---|
| First week of August 2026 (likely 4–6 Aug) | Form 10-K for FY2026. Will carry the FY26 client count, the FY26 annual revenue retention statement, the full-year float split, FY26 SBC, and the FY26 pro-forma note on Grayscale. | Prior 10-Ks filed 6 Aug 2025, 2 Aug 2024, and consistently in the first week of August. |
| Late Oct / early Nov 2026 | Q1 FY2027 results. | Prior Q1 releases: 4 Nov 2025, 30 Oct 2024, 2 Nov 2023, 3 Nov 2022. |
| Early Feb 2027 | Q2 FY2027 results. | Prior: 5 Feb 2026, 6 Feb 2025, 8 Feb 2024, 2 Feb 2023. |
| Early May 2027 | Q3 FY2027 results. | Prior: 7 May 2026, 1 May 2025, 2 May 2024, 4 May 2023. |
FOMC meeting outcomes. 7.04% of Paylocity's revenue and 33.1% of its operating income reprice with the front end of the US yield curve, on a client-funds book that is 84% in demand deposits with zero duration and explicitly unhedged by stated policy (10-Q: "We have not used, nor do we intend to use, derivatives to mitigate the impact of interest rate or other exposure"). Each 100bp is −$32.3m of revenue and of operating income, with no cost offset.
I did not verify the Federal Reserve's H2 2026 and 2027 meeting calendar within the time box, and I will not state dates I have not checked. The brief is explicit that a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar. The dates are published by the Federal Reserve and should be added to this calendar before the name is monitored. This is the single largest gap in this memo's catalyst coverage and it is deliberate.
Run against every future release. Each line is a thesis-invalidating or thesis-confirming test defined in PCTY_Trade_Construction.md §2.
| # | What to read | Current reading | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recurring & other revenue growth | +11.6% (Q3 FY26); +9–10% guided Q4 | Below 9% → invalidation |
| 2 | Interest income on funds held for clients, absolute and YoY | $32.4m, −3% YoY; Q4 guided ≈ −15% YoY | Two consecutive quarters below −15% → the rate scenario is arriving faster than modelled |
| 3 | Float as % of total revenue | 7.04% TTM, down from 8.62% peak (FY24) | Rising again → the terminal margin is re-inflating on rates, not on operations |
| 4 | Adjusted EBITDA excluding interest income margin (on recurring revenue) | FY26 guided $521–525m on $1,640.5m = 31.8% | Above 32% → operating leverage is real independent of rates (confirmation) |
| 5 | Annual revenue retention (10-K only) | ">92%" — identical censored floor for FY23, FY24, FY25 | Any figure below 92%, or the disclosure being dropped entirely → invalidation |
| 6 | Client count, ex-acquisition (10-K only) | ≈41,650 at 30-Jun-25, +6.7% | Below 5% → the new-logo engine, which is half the growth, is stalling |
| 7 | Recurring revenue per client | $35,337 FY25, +7.7% | Above 9% → Paylocity Retirement / module attach is working (confirmation) |
| 8 | Share count and buyback pace | 53,537k at 31-Mar-26, −3.3% in 9M; $350m repurchased | Buyback pausing with $1.35bn authorised → investigate |
| 9 | SBC + payroll tax vs buyback | $115.9m vs $350.0m = 3.0× covered | Falling below 1.0× → dilution resumes |
| 10 | "Spend management" / Airbase in prepared remarks | Zero mentions in the last three releases | Continued absence, or an impairment of the $343.2m goodwill balance → the Airbase question in PCTY_Research.md §4 is answered badly |
| 11 | Long-term debt | $81.25m, down from $325m drawn Oct-2024 | Re-drawing the revolver → a new acquisition, or a cash-flow issue |
| 12 | Own EV/EBIT vs the two regimes | 19.59x = 100th pctile post-reset, 46.8th pctile trailing-12m | The regime question in PCTY_Valuation.md §3.2 resolves one way or the other |