PRCT · investment memo
held fixed in the implied-path test. m_EBIT,T 13.4 <= m_gross,T 63.97 SATISFIED. ABOVE trailing (-33.86% TTM), the correct direction for a State C scaler, but the memo names it as the residual risk: at the company's own 30% guided growth the price requires only a 5.2% terminal margin, and at an 8% terminal margin with a 12x exit the test FAILS at 35.4% required.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $14.32 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Named cause and probabilities in PRCT_Trade_Construction.md §4. Headline: the destock is not finished *and* procedure growth — not just shipments — decelerates; FY26 lands near $370–380m; $17–18, roughly spot. Severe case, requiring an equity raise into a depressed price: $9–11, −40% to −50%. No going-concern case is argued: $194.0m net cash, $51.7m non-current debt, FY26 guided adjusted-EBITDA loss $17–30m.