PROCEPT BioRobotics [PRCT]
As of 2026-07-29. Every figure below is traced to a primary source. Derived figures state their derivation.
| Rank | Source | Used for |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC XBRL companyfacts, CIK 0001588978 (retrieved 2026-07-29) |
Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, share counts |
| 2 | Filing "Financial Report" R-files (FilingSummary.xml → R*.htm) |
Revenue disaggregation by type/geography, balance-sheet detail, concentration notes |
| 3 | 8-K Exhibit 99.1 quarterly releases | Q4 figures (never tagged separately), unit metrics, guidance, mention corpus |
| 4 | Alpaca market data | Prices (split-adjusted daily closes), consolidated volume (SIP), options chain and Greeks |
| 5 | CMS 2026 PFS / OPPS-ASC rules; company press releases | Reimbursement status |
Not used: Alpha Vantage consensus (25/day shared quota exhausted at run time → Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE, blocks nothing).
RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, USD, 89–91-day periods. Q4 is never tagged
separately; it is derived as FY − (Q1+Q2+Q3) and then cross-checked against the Q4 earnings release
income statement, which prints it directly.
| Quarter | Revenue ($k) | Derivation | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'24 | 44,539 | tagged | |
| Q2'24 | 53,353 | tagged | |
| Q3'24 | 58,370 | tagged | |
| Q4'24 | 68,236 | 224,498 − 156,262 · release prints 68,236 ✅ | |
| Q1'25 | 69,162 | tagged | +55.3% |
| Q2'25 | 79,182 | tagged | +48.4% |
| Q3'25 | 83,327 | tagged | +42.8% |
| Q4'25 | 76,383 | 308,054 − 231,671 · release prints 76,383 ✅ | +11.9% |
| Q1'26 | 83,132 | tagged | +20.2% |
TTM to 2026-03-31 = 79,182 + 83,327 + 76,383 + 83,132 = $322,024k. Matches the screen to the dollar.
Q4'25 fell 8.3% sequentially from Q3'25 — a sequential decline in what is normally the seasonally strongest quarter for medical capital equipment. Cause is disclosed and specific (Research §2.2), not a mystery.
The by-type disaggregation exists in every 10-Q and every earnings release. It does not exist in the FY2024
or FY2025 10-K — verified by enumerating the R-file inventory of both filings' FilingSummary.xml; neither
contains a "Revenue" note or a "Disaggregation of Revenue" detail.
FY2025 vs FY2024 (Q4'25 release, "REVENUE BY TYPE AND GEOGRAPHY"), $k:
| FY2025 | FY2024 | growth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US — system sales and rentals | 93,000 | 78,614 | +18.3% |
| US — handpieces and other consumables | 159,669 | 110,542 | +44.4% |
| US — service | 17,709 | 11,316 | +56.5% |
| US total | 270,378 | 200,472 | +34.9% |
| OUS — system sales and rentals | 13,132 | 11,685 | +12.4% |
| OUS — handpieces and other consumables | 21,777 | 10,914 | +99.5% |
| OUS — service | 2,767 | 1,427 | +93.9% |
| OUS total | 37,676 | 24,026 | +56.8% |
| Total | 308,054 | 224,498 | +37.2% |
Q1'26 vs Q1'25 ($k): systems 27,239 vs 22,540 (+20.8%); handpieces/consumables 49,390 vs 42,488 (+16.2%); service 6,503 vs 4,134 (+57.3%).
Mix, Q1'26: systems 32.8%, consumables 59.4%, service 7.8%.
Modelling note. The consumable line decelerated from +60.0% (9M'25) to +16.2% (Q1'26) in two quarters. Any model that extrapolates the consumable line off FY2024–FY2025 will be modelling channel fill. The correct base for a forward consumable build is procedures × handpiece ASP, not historical consumable revenue growth:
FY26 handpiece revenue therefore ≈ US procedures × ~$3,500 × ~1.00. At the guided 39–48% procedure growth (60,200–64,100), that is $211–224m of US handpiece revenue. At the Q1 seasonal-share implied 56,700 procedures it is $198m. The spread between those two is $13–26m of FY26 revenue — roughly the entire distance between the guidance floor and a miss.
US install base and procedures, from the Q4'25 and Q1'26 release tables:
| Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning install base | 315 | 354 | 400 | 445 | 505 | 547 | 595 | 653 | 718 |
| Systems placed | 39 | 46 | 45 | 60 | 42 | 48 | 58 | 65 | 47 |
| Ending install base | 354 | 400 | 445 | 505 | 547 | 595 | 653 | 718 | 765 |
| US procedures (000) | 6.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Procedures / avg system | 18.2 | 18.6 | 17.5 | 15.2 | 17.7 | 18.9 | 17.6 | 17.8 | 16.5 |
Annualised procedures per system: FY23 68.5 · FY24 67.6 · FY25 70.9. Flat.
Systems placed per year: FY23 148 · FY24 190 (+28%) · FY25 213 (+12%); Q1'26 47 vs Q1'25 42 (+12%).
System ASP: FY25 US system revenue $93.0m ÷ 213 = ~$437k; Q1'26 disclosed ~$485k for a new HYDROS. Q4'25 US system revenue was flat YoY ($27,600k vs $27,636k) on more units (65 vs 60) — an ~8% ASP decline in that quarter, before the Q1'26 recovery.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM to 3/26 | Q1'25 | Q1'26 | FY26 guide | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 61.1% | 63.7% | 63.97% | 63.9% | 64.9% | ~65% |
| Operating margin | −43.0% | −33.7% | −33.86% | −39.7% | −39.2% | −22.5% (derived) |
| Operating expenses ($m) | 233.7 | 300.1 | — | 71.6 | 86.6 | ~350 |
| Opex growth YoY | — | +28.4% | — | — | +20.9% | +16.6% |
FY26 operating margin is derived, not guided: revenue $400m × 65% GM = $260m gross profit, minus $350m opex = −$90m operating loss = −22.5%.
The operating-leverage question in one line. FY25 delivered +9.3pp of operating-margin expansion because revenue grew 37.2% against opex growth of 28.4%. FY26 guidance needs +11.2pp from revenue +30% against opex +16.6%. Q1'26 delivered +0.5pp, because revenue grew 20.2% against opex growth of 20.9% — opex grew faster than revenue. The FY26 margin step is entirely back-loaded and entirely unevidenced so far.
Q4'25 gross margin was 60.6%, hit by (a) lower US consumable revenue in the destock and (b) a $1.5m one-time voluntary field action = 240bp (handpiece/system compatibility; no patient-safety issue; resolved by field upgrade). Both non-recurring; Q1'26 recovered to 64.9%.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | Q1'25 | Q1'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow ($m) | −99.2 | −49.0 | −17.0 | −38.1 |
| Net loss ($m) | −91.4 | −95.6 | −24.7 | −31.6 |
| Stock-based comp ($m) | 31.8 | 47.6 | 10.1 | 13.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($m) | −61.1 | −50.2 | −15.8 | −18.1 |
| Cash + equivalents ($m, period end) | 333.7 | 286.5 | 316.2 | 245.6 |
SBC is 15.5% of FY2025 revenue and is guided to $59m in FY2026 — and adjusted EBITDA excludes all of it. The gap between the FY26 adjusted-EBITDA guide (−$17 to −$30m) and the FY26 GAAP net-loss guide (−$78.5 to −$91.5m) is almost entirely SBC plus D&A. This is the Twist pattern named in the brief: a non-GAAP headline that improves while the GAAP loss does not. It is disclosed, reconciled in the release, and not hidden — but a model built on adjusted EBITDA will overstate this company's economics by ~$60m a year.
Balance-sheet ratios are stable — the problem was never on the balance sheet.
| 2025-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | |
|---|---|---|
| DSO (AR ÷ quarterly revenue × 89) | 102 days | 103 days |
| Days inventory (on TTM COGS) | 245 days | 244 days |
| AR ($m) | 79.3 | 96.4 |
| Inventory ($m) | 62.3 | 77.5 |
Neither ratio deteriorated. The channel fill sat at the customer, not in PRCT's receivables — which is precisely why it was invisible in the financial statements and why it took a management disclosure, not a ratio, to surface it. This is the memo's methodological finding: an AAOI-style DSO screen would have found nothing here. The detection route that worked was units versus revenue — procedures against handpieces sold — which requires the operating-metric table, not the financial statements.
Accruals (retained on both archetypes per criteria.md): TTM net income −$102.5m vs TTM operating cash flow −$70.1m → accruals of −$32.3m = −6.6% of total assets. Negative (conservative). No earnings-quality flag on the Sloan measure.
Customer concentration: the Q1'26 10-Q's "Segment, Geographical, and Customer Concentration" note discloses geographic concentration only (US 87% / OUS 13%) and no single customer above the 10% disclosure threshold. There is no AAOI-style stocking distributor. The 10-K notes sales to "hospitals, or end customers, and to a lesser extent, distribution partners, ambulatory surgery centres and leasing companies", unquantified.
Sales-type leases: PRCT does place systems under sales-type leases. The amounts are immaterial —
SalesTypeLeaseRevenue of $3.0m in FY2025 (1.0% of revenue) and $0 in Q1'26; net investment in lease
$4.8m at 2026-03-31. This is not a channel for pulling forward system revenue at any meaningful scale, and
it was checked specifically because it could have been.
| Long-term debt | $51.664m at 2026-03-31, all non-current, $0 current portion |
| Interest expense | $3.586m FY25; $0.818m Q1'26 |
| Interest & other income | $12.063m FY25; $1.743m Q1'26 — net interest is a positive contributor |
| Shares outstanding | 50.96m (Feb-2024) → 54.82m (Feb-2025) → 56.92m (Apr-2026) |
| Dilution rate | ~+7.6% in 2024, ~+3.8% in 2025 — decelerating |
| Preferred | none issued or outstanding |
| Buyback | none |
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Base revenue | $322.024m TTM | Verified sum of four filed quarters |
| Shares | 56,918,844 | Q1'26 10-Q cover, 2026-04-24 |
| Net cash | $193.977m | Cash $245.641m − LT debt $51.664m, 2026-03-31 |
| WACC | 11% | Sensitivity run 9–13%; answer moves 5.5%→9.4%, immaterial |
| Terminal EBIT margin | 13.4% | Screen's industry median for pre-profit names. Contested — see Valuation §1.6. PRCT has never earned an operating profit. |
| Exit multiple | 22.8x EBIT / 2.6x sales for the self-anchored cross-check | Screen GROWTH_MATCHED n=97 (peer set not re-derivable) / PRCT's own current multiple |
| Horizon | 5 years | Framework standard |
| FY26 revenue | $390–410m | Company guidance, reiterated 2026-04-29 |
| FY27 revenue growth | 15% / 22% / 30% | House assumption. Bear extends the Q1'26 recurring-line trend; base sits between Q1'26 actual (+20%) and the FY26 guide (+30%). |
| Net cash at Jul-2027 | $120m / $160m / $185m | House estimate, built from the FY26 adjusted-EBITDA guide, FY25's $49.0m actual burn, Q1'26's $38.1m, and ~$12–15m/yr capex |
| Shares at Jul-2027 | 58.5–59.5m | ~2.5%/yr net issuance, consistent with 54.7m → 56.9m over five quarters |
Recorded because the framework's premise is that defects compound into future memos.
companyfacts filing dates are contaminated by restatements. SEC retains only the latest filing that
restated a prior fiscal year, so a Q4 value derived from a 10-K inherits that (much later) filing date.
Using it as the "publicly known from" date in a point-in-time multiple series pushed every TTM window
containing a Q4 years forward and produced EV/Sales medians of 50–120x — confidently wrong, silently.
Fix: fall back to the actual reporting lag whenever the recorded filing date exceeds 100 days after
period end.330 ≤ span ≤ 400 rejected every valid window and admitted the one invalid window that
skipped a quarter. Both bugs produced plausible-looking output.