PRGS · investment memo
Company's own TTM demonstrated GAAP operating margin of 17.79%, rounded to 18.0%. +2.3pp above the FY2025 annual actual of 15.68%. Reconciled through the FY2025 opex bridge from 10-K lines: gross 80.82% - R&D 19.66% - S&M 21.58% - G&A 11.07% - acquired-intangible amortisation 10.66% - restructuring 1.34% - acquisition costs 0.83% = 15.68%, tying to the filed OperatingIncomeLoss of 153,290,000 exactly. Acquired-intangible amortisation is held IN because organic revenue declines, so PRGS must keep acquiring and the charge is replenished rather than run off.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $34.25 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Cause: the revolver stops being available on the terms the model assumes. PRGS carries $850m drawn on a $1.5bn facility at 5.92%, net debt/EBITDA around 3.5x, and organic revenue that is shrinking. If the next deal cannot be funded — because leverage covenants bind, or because the facility reprices — the reported growth rate converges on the organic rate, which is −2.2% on revenue and +2% on ARR. At a −2% revenue path and a 15.7% GAAP margin, EBIT falls to roughly $155m by FY2029 and the equity, which is 42% geared, absorbs the whole of any multiple compression. At the ROIC-warranted 7.2x EV/E